Full water storages, coupled with a 50 per cent chance of another La Nina in 2022-23, are the main drivers of Murray River management strategies, according to the latest operating outlook.
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Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) River Management executive director Andrew Reynolds, said the annual Operating Outlook explained how the river would be run based on a range of potential climatic and rainfall scenarios.
"Heading into the irrigation season, southern Basin storages are at an unusually high level for this time of year, and it's likely that wet conditions and high flows will persist for at least the next few months," Mr Reynolds said.
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As of early August, Hume Dam was 95 per cent full, Dartmouth stood at 97pc Lake Victoria, 62pc and the Menindee Lakes were at 115pc capacity.
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Healthy flows continued to enter the Murray from the Murrumbidgee River, the Goulburn River and the other Victorian tributaries.
"Although rainfall eased off somewhat in the past couple of months, we're approaching what is typically the season of highest inflows, and the Bureau of Meteorology is also forecasting a 50pc chance of another La Nina developing later this year," Mr Reynolds said.
"At Hume Dam we have been in and out of flood operations for the past 12 months and this is likely to continue into spring."
The MDBA will consider whether there is a need to start accessing water from the Menindee Lakes to fulfill demand in the Murray system as the year progressed.
"The fact that we did not need to draw water from the Menindee Lakes last summer underscores how unusual this long period of wet weather and high flows has been," he said.
"Given the high levels of water in storage, the risk of a shortfall in water delivery to entitlement holders this year is relatively low, however the risk could increase if conditions dry off and water demands ramp up quickly during a period of hot weather.
"It's also notable that substantial amounts of water for the environment will be delivered through the system this year, including to the Barmah-Millewa Forest, unless natural flows exceed environmental targets."
The MDBA bases its evaluation of conditions on Bureau forecasts and advice, inflow data, predicted inflows and demands and historical records, to determine how to best manage the system.
The River Murray System Annual Operating Outlook is prepared by the MDBA with input from the NSW, Victorian and South Australian governments.
The annual Operating Outlook and a summary is available online:
An update may be published later in 2022 and at other times if the situation changes.
