The northern Victoria Resource manager has issued an upbeat outlook for water supply in the new irrigation year.
A Goulburn-Murray Water spokeswoman says at 85 per cent High Reliability Water Shares for the Murray system it's looking to be the best opening since 2014-15.
That in itself was one of the best figures since unbundling, in July 2007.
In announcing opening seasonal determinations, Resource manager Dr Mark Bailey said reserves collected so far this season provided a strong foundation for 2022/23 water availability
That was reflected in the updated outlooks.
"Based on estimated carryover and current weather trends, opening seasonal determinations in the Murray system are likely to be around 85 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS)," Dr Bailey said.
"In the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems, the opening seasonal determinations are expected to start at about 50 per cent HRWS.
"While operating needs are fully met, early season water availability in the Broken and Bullarook systems will depend on catchment flows."
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Even average inflow conditions should allow the Murray, Campaspe and Bullarook systems to reach seasonal determinations of 100pc HRWS by mid-August 2022.
"The same conditions in the Goulburn, Broken and Loddon systems would provide 100pc HRWS in mid-September."
Dr Bailey said carryover volumes in the Murray and Goulburn systems were expected to be close to 900,000 megalitres in each system.
"Storage levels are higher than this time last year and so is the volume of unused allocation. This is not unexpected, given the wetter conditions during the traditional irrigation months," he said.
"Early season use that reduces the amount of water committed plus continued inflows into the storages will increase the chances of allocations to low-reliability water shares (LRWS).
"Wetter than average inflow conditions for a sustained period are needed in the Murray and Campaspe system before LRWS allocations can commence. In the Goulburn, inflows need to be closer to the wet outlook scenario.
"Scenarios where LRWS are allocated in the Murray and Goulburn systems will see deductions from spillable water accounts.
"The Goulburn system risk of spill in 2022/23 is currently about 70pc and about 40pc in the Campaspe system.
"Victoria's share of Hume and Dartmouth are both full which means flows in the Murray system would need to be extremely low to avoid a deduction from spillable water accounts in 2022/23."
Andrew Miller
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
