A low pressure trough, sitting roughly along the line of the Calder Highway and Freeway, is likely to bring isolated storms to an area to its east from today onwards.
Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Dean Narramore said Cup Day was a warm to hot and partly cloudy day for much of Victoria.
The trough was not likely to affect the area to its west, but would bring a humid, north easterly airstream across the state, he said.
"It's good news for the harvest in the Mallee and Wimmera, it's going to be a dry, sunny and breezy few days," he said.
"The trough that's associated with the rain and storms is sitting from roughly Mildura and Swan Hill, down through Bendigo to Melbourne.
"If you are west of that line, which pretty much everyone is, you will be on the dry side of the trough.
'If you are near - or to the east - of that line, that's where you will see those showers and thunderstorms for the next few days."
He said Sea Lake and Charlton were on the fringe of the trough and could experience some storms on Wednesday and Thursday.
"But the majority of the Mallee and Wimmera, particular as you get to the SA border, is likely to remain dry this week," Mr Narramore said.
"If you're harvesting on the SA border you'll get perfect weather, dry, sunny and no showers or storms."
Low pressure trough systems, like the one currently over Victoria, were common in spring, he said.
The BoM has forecast the chance of severe thunderstorms, with the risk of heavy rainfall and damaging winds, in the coming days.
"It's more humid and these trough systems tend to hang around eastern Australia," Mr Narramore said.
There could be falls of up to 10-15 millimetres of rain, from "isolated hit-and-miss" storms, which would hit some paddocks and not others.
"We will see cooler conditions return later this week and into next week," he said.
Matt Rohde, Lorquon, said he was harvesting canola.
"It's a nice hot week, so we are having a good run at getting some grain off," Mr Rohde said.
"There's no forecast of rain for us that I've seen."
Bryce Warner, Nhill, said he was harvesting canola, at the moment.
He's growing wheat, barley, beans and lupins and didn't want rain.
"It all looks pretty good, there's been just enough rain, and it's drying out now," Mr Warner said.
"It looks like it might be stormy, out in the east, but nothing here.
"We can get the harvest done on time."
He said he was happy with the way the harvest was going - "we haven't got it in yet, we have only just started canola.
"A bit more to go and we will have a better idea (on yields)."
Rob Robinson, Rainbow, is growing grows cereals, lupins, field peas and oaten and vetch hay for and had harvested canola.
"It certainly does look threatening at the moment, they have indicated there is opportunity for rain," he said.
"We wouldn't want any rain at the moment, we have hay and crops down, so we are into harvest - if it stayed away for a while, it wouldn't worry us."
"It would be nice to have some dry conditions to give us a bit of confidence."
He said he was "reasonably happy" with the canola and the hay "seems to be going pretty well.
It would be an average, to slightly above, yield although frost had caused more frost damage than originally thought..
Andrew Miller
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
