Dramatic turnaround in weather conditions since June, says the BoM

Spring would see higher than average temperatures, both maximum and minimum, for Victoria and much of southeast Australia, he said.

It comes as the Bureau remains cagey about a full-blown prediction for an El Nino.

But Mr Pollock said the models were showing unusually low rainfall for August to October.

"Most of Victoria has about double its normal chance of having rainfall in its lowest 20 per cent of records for that three months," he said.

There was also the chance of unusually high temperatures - maximum temperatures could be in the warmest 20pc of the historical range.

"For parts of the north-east, there is an increased chance, almost triple, of the normal likelihood of there being unusually warm maximum temperatures," Mr Pollock said.

Forecasters were not seeing a response from the atmosphere in the Pacific yet, he said.

"It looks like we have the right set up in the oceans for El Nino, but cloudiness, trade winds and the difference in pressure are still looking mostly neutral," he said.

"In the Indian Ocean the models are expecting, and have for some time now, that we are going to be moving into a positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase.

"There is generally good agreement between the models it will occur - and most of them show the event decaying towards the end of the year.

"That is pretty typical - most Indian Ocean Dipole events tend to break down when the Monsoon trough enters the southern hemisphere, around summertime."

Even though the models were telling forecasters that, there had not been much evidence from sea surface temperatures.

"Throughout winter and spring, Victoria has typically below average rainfall when we have an El Nino and a positive IoD."

The predictions follow a very wet June, which took forecasters by surprise. he said.

"In June, it was obviously very wet, it was quite an exceptional month for large parts of the state, with east Gippsland the only area that was drier than average," Mr Pollock said..

"Really, all that above average rainfall was a bit unexpected - the models were showing us we were likely to have dry conditions, during June."

He said waters off Western Australia remained warmer than the model was predicting.

Early in the month, tropical moisture interacted with fronts, crossing southern Australia.

Later in the month "really dramatic" north-west cloud bands brought above average rainfall, all the way from the Kimberley right across the mainland and down to Tasmania, he said.

It ended up being the seventh wettest June on record, for Victoria.

In contrast, July was the 11th driest on record for Victoria - "which was quite a turnaround," he said.

Parts of eastern Victoria recorded the highest temperatures on record.

Director of Community at Greater Shepparton city council, Louise Mitchell said there was a real need for factual information about current conditions and any potential for future flood risk.

"There is a real need, in our community at the moment, for factual information about the current conditions and any potential for future flood risk," she said.

"Many people in our community are understandably nervous, or anxious that we could be at risk of future flooding, so soon after what was a really traumatic event last October.

There is one simple question people really want answered - "are we going to experience any major flooding in 2023," she said.

"The answer - simply as we can make it - is the odds are lengthening, now the forecast dry weather has kicked in."