Although irrigation dams are full, producers seeking to buy temporary water might be in for a shock when it comes to opening prices, says one leading broker.
Brokers are predicting prices, based on current forward contracts for temporary water, to open between $110 and $140 a megalitre.
The NSW season will open on July 1, while for Victoria it is August 15.
H2oX business development manager Craig Feuerherdt, Bendigo, said Victorian prices were currently "sub $15/ML".
"What we generally see is the prices open higher for the beginning of the next season and that's really driven by what products have been sold, this season - that's forwards (contracts) and parking space," Mr Feuerherdt said.
'Looking at those numbers we will probably open at around $100 ML, at a minimum.
"The prices from there will really be determined by the Bureau of Meteorology outlook and how winter has been, with inflows.
"Fundamentally, there's plenty of water in the system - in Victoria we will have 100 per cent determination and prices aren't going to go crazy".
He said trades could start from July 1.
"Water prices are not going up any time in the short term," he said.
"There is just too much water to securely carry over into next season, so anything carried against high reliability in Victoria is going to be at risk of spilling".
The oversupply meant opening prices might be "a bit of a shock - prices are likely to be close to $100/ML, or around $100/ML, coming off $15/ML
"That will be lower as we head towards the end of this season".
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The southern Murray-Darling Basin tracked some of its highest rainfall and inflow totals on record in the tail end of 2022, according to the Murray Darling Basin Authority's update to the 2022-23 Annual Operating Outlook.
The update details how the MDBA might run the Murray River, under a range of possible climate and rainfall scenarios.
Normally released before Christmas, the update was delayed until the main River Murray flood peak had passed.
MDBA River Management executive director Andrew Reynolds, said the report highlighted the widespread rain and flooding that has dominated the 2022 water year.
"The volume of water flowing into the River Murray system in November and December was the largest recorded in 127 years," Mr Reynolds said.
"This followed record-breaking rainfall in many southern Basin communities, particularly between August and December.
"It is heartening to see the Murray River system positioned to provide strong water availability for communities and the environment well into 2023-24.
"This also means it is unlikely the MDBA will need to draw water from the Menindee Lakes into the Murray system anytime soon."
Mr Reynolds said parts the Murray were expected to return to regulated conditions in the coming months, if conditions remained relatively dry.
However, water storages in the Murray River system remained at very high levels for this time of year, with Dartmouth Dam and Hume Dam virtually full and the Menindee Lakes above 100 percent.
"The release of water to manage airspace has already started at Dartmouth Dam, and if reasonable rain persists into autumn, releases from Hume Dam will be required as we approach winter.
"The latest climate outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology points to average rainfall across the Basin for February to April 2023, with a possible trend to drier conditions from March to May".
Key Water's Anthony McCloskey, Griffith, NSW, said a dry autumn and full dams meant he expected NSW and SA would follow Victoria's lead in putting out full allocations for high security product.
"The dams on the Murrumbidgee have had some air space created, they've done that in case we get winter rains," he said.
"I would also expected there will be a fair bit of carryover on the general security licences, that will obviously affect the opening allocations but they should still be reasonable".
While the season opening was still some months away, a drier autumn and winter would see "plenty of land ready to go, for summer crops.
"There will be plenty of preparation done, so I think there will still be very good demand next season.
"We have seen forward prices done, and they are quite often a good indicator (but not always) of around $120-130/ML in the Murrumbidgee.'
"I think people are expecting they will need plenty of water next year - what's it going to open at? Possibly a bit below that but I think the demand will pick up".
Wilks Water owner Tom Wilks, Wagga Wagga, NSW, said irrigators were starting to plan for the coming season.
'With full dams, and in Victoria with projected allocations, everyone will be keen to irrigate, keen to grow something," he said.
"In the Riverina, the mild start and wet spring saw some of the crops not yielding as well as producers had hoped".
"Some are good, some are better than good, but with plenty of water and fertiliser prices coming back, I think there will be full program.
"People will plan for a good winter and summer program".
He agreed the Murrumbidgee forward market would be between $120-140 M/L.
The Murray was trading at $110 M/L for forward contracts.
"We do have full dams, any inflows in the Murrumbidgee will turn into supplementary flows, there will be 28 per cent carryover," he said.
"It looks pretty good, it's not often we go from extreme wet to extreme dry - there is usually an in-between period. -
"If we have an average rainfall year, the allocations will climb throughout the season".
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Andrew Miller
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
