Northern Victoria Resource manager Mark Bailey says opening seasonal determinations in the Murray system are likely to be at least 80 per cent of high reliability water shares.
"Very wet conditions through 2022/23 provided maximum seasonal determinations in all systems and good prospects for 2023/24 allocations," Dr Bailey said.
"Based on estimated use at the end of the season, opening seasonal determinations in the Murray system are likely to be at least 80 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS).
"Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn and Loddon systems are expected to start at about 75 per cent HRWS or better."
The Campaspe system is even better, with enough resource available to allocate 100pc of HRWS, under all conditions.
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Dr Bailey said carried over allocation volumes and catchment conditions would influence early season availability in the Broken and Bullarook systems, which had smaller storages and fewer reserves.
"Average inflow conditions should allow the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon and Bullarook systems to reach seasonal determinations of 100 per cent HRWS by mid-August 2023," Dr Bailey said.
"The same conditions in the Broken system would provide 100 per cent HRWS in mid-October."
The Murray and Goulburn systems need average or better inflow conditions for seasonal determinations to low-reliability water shares (LRWS)," Dr Bailey said.
LRWS allocations in the Campaspe system were likely early in the season under average inflow conditions.
"Early season use that reduces the amount of water committed, plus continued inflows into the storages, will increase the chances of allocations to LRWS," he said.
"Any scenarios in which LRWS is allocated in the Murray and Goulburn systems will see deductions from spillable water accounts," Dr Bailey said.
"The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2023/24 will depend on how much water is released from the storages in the next few months to meet demands.
The risk of spill in each system was expected to be at least 70 per cent at the start of July 2023.
"Customers in these systems should factor the risk of spill into their plans for the remaining months of 2022/23," he said.
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