Analysts say Labor likely to retain government at the upcoming poll

Political pundits say the Liberals and Nationals face a formidable task to regain government, after what was known as the "Danslide" - after Premier Daniel Andrews - four years ago.

Monash University Associate Professor of Politics Paul Strangio said he did not expect the Liberal-National coalition to take government.

"I have looked at all the polls and there is not a scintilla of evidence to show the coalition can win this election," Assoc Prof Strangio said.

"My hunch is that, at this stage, Labor will be returned, but with a reduced majority

"Although people are talking up that mythical beast 'minority government', this spectre always get raised

"But if you look at the hard evidence, there is none that Labor is going to be reduced to minority status".

Assoc Prof Strangio said the redistribution had made the coalition's task "notionally just that little bit more difficult".

"It certainly has had an effect, in seats around Ballarat, like Ripon (Liberal).

"The coalition didn't need that, given the mountain it has to climb."

He said the evidence was that Labor continued to have the regional cities "locked up".

"This is a pattern that has been established since 1999, it just seems the Liberal Party can't make any headway in those places.

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He said the election would be fought, and won, in metropolitan Melbourne.

"Labor's primary vote has come off quite significantly, but at the same time the evidence has been it hasn't gone to the Liberal Party, it's gone to the Greens and Independents," he said.

The Labor seats in the outer north and west might be threatened but not by enough to tip government incumbents out.

RedBridge Group director Kos Samaras said smaller rural, and provincial seats, such as Benambra and Mildura may throw up some surprises.

"It will be won, or lost, predominantly in Melbourne - so, basically, the eastern corridor where Labor holds a number of seats - seats like Pakenham, Nepean, Bass and then there is a question of what happens to Labor seats in the west of Melbourne," he said.

"This one (election) is going to be a very interesting patchy quilt."

When it came to the regions, Shepparton (held by Independent Suzanna Sheed) Benambra (Liberal), Morwell (Independent), and Mildura (Independent) would be the ones to watch.

What could possibly happen would be the coalition could claim between four to 10 seats off the government, but that wasn't enough to make the 18 they needed, he said.

'They (the government) could lose a couple to the Greens and a couple to Independents, there might be some seats that move in and out between the Greens and coalition as well."

He said the hangover from the COVID-19 lockdowns was unlikely to be felt in the regions.

"The pandemic experience in the regions was vastly different to people living in Melbourne, that in turn has kind of benefitted the government," he said.

Benambra, which bordered Albury-Wodonga, was "very much" turning into an electorate that is a magnet for young professionals.

"That is steering the politics of the electorate - it's happened in Ballarat and Bendigo, they have become epicentres for the regional professional classes.

"That has obviously had a dramatic impact on the color of those electorates."

Mr Samaras said highly educated professionals tended to lean towards the left, rather than the conservative side of politics.

"The coalition does secure support from those constituencies, but it is not anywhere near the level of support both the Greens and Labor secure," he said.

Independents could do well, he said.

"It's the same issue we see right across regional Victoria and Australia - small town Australia feels like established political parties are ignoring them," Mr Samaras said.

"The things people in the cities take for granted, such as access to health services, are major challenges for a lot of regional people.

"There are some towns without a paediatrician and that just compounds the sense of neglect, abandonment and that the major parties just play games and really don't address the issues."

Read more: Roads, health and planning the big issues to tackle this election for regional Victorians

Founder of the Tally Room website and podcast Ben Raue said the electorate had become more polarised.

"It's no longer about Liberal versus Labor races, you have all these independent races, urban seats, rural seats and then you have the Greens in the inner city," Mr Raue said.

"The Liberals are preferencing them now, but I don't think people have fully grasped what that means - but that's huge, so that could probably put the Greens on five seats."

He said he didn't think Labor was "that close" to losing its majority.

"Most of the independents are standing in seats that would have been favorable to the coalition, which is also what happened in the federal election," he said.

He said the Upper House was "a total mess," while Mr Samaras defined the outcome as "like a Star Wars bar scene".

Assoc Prof Strangio said there was likely to be an enlarged cross-bench in the Upper House and it was likely to be "a real mess".

"Navigating legislation through the Upper House is going to be a real challenge, for whoever is in government - why has Victoria lagged in doing something about group ticket voting?," Assoc Prof Strangio said.

"The trend, throughout the rest of Australia, is the abolition of group ticket voting, because of the way the system can be gamed, to harvest votes".

The greater the proliferation of minor parties the more likely the opposition to the abolition of group ticket voting, he said.

"We have reached a vicious cycle in Victoria," he said.

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