Sheep farmers with record scanning results are bracing for a challenging lambing season, a conference in west Victoria has heard.
Speaking at Paraway Pastoral's carbon conference at Barton Station, Moyston, Lambs Alive consultant Jason Trompf warned sheep farmers to get prepared now to mitigate lamb losses.
He said unseasonal summer rains led to record scans on many Victorian farms but a late autumn break has left poor grass growth as ewes neared lambing.
"The perfect storm we have this year, it's a challenge," he said.
"Because of the out of season rains during the summer, we've had record scanning rates, now coupled with this late autumn break."
Farmers at the conference reported scanning rates higher than usual with many more multiples expected in most flocks, some up at 190 per cent.
"As scanning rates lift, you typically get more and more multiples," Mr Trompf said.
"It's not because you're getting a few more ewes pregnant.
"It's normally because your average litter size is going up.
"Clearly twins and then triplets are a lot more challenging to keep alive, even in a normal year.
"It's not doomsday but it is going to be challenging."
He said the farmers most affected will be those who've taken a "big quantum lift" in the number of fetuses scanned.
"Their outcome in scanning is a bit more seasonally driven," he said.
Mr Trompf said farmers who've become familiar with more multiples had developed their systems to prepare with more paddocks during lambing, subdivision and better shelter.
"I think what's going to be the real challenge is people who have had that quantum lift at the start of 2024 in scanning and now they've got this deck of cards," he said.
Tim Leeming, Precision Lambing, Coojar, told sheep farmers to isolate and deferentially manage scanned ewes even if they hadn't yet.
"It gives you power and it gives you precision," he said.
He said single carrying ewes needed to be turned off to ensure they did not become overfat and multiple bearing ewes needed to be given that extra attention.
Mr Leeming warned that if farmers didn't prepare like this now, lamb mortality could be "off the charts" and suggested all those lambing in the months ahead should carefully plan their paddocks.
He said working to keep ewes at their birth site longer was an "oldy but a goldie" and also encouraged them to use temporary fencing to split mobs into smaller paddocks, use flat ground and paddocks with ample shelter.
Northwest Victoria has not yet had a full autumn break and rain was not expected until early June.
Mr Trompf said the median break was now later and later in the region and sheep farmers needed to be wise to this.
"My core message is you've got to really be careful with your timing in your system," he said.
"The average sort of break around here was May 1 but it's drifted a week later in the last 20 years.
"Late May and June breaks are uncommon but you just have to be really careful.
"The proceeding three or four autumn breaks, 2020-2023, four in a row, were all early breaks and we had good prices.
"I think it's probably lured people into thinking they had to get a piece of this action, lamb early and sell heavier lambs."
He warned farmers against "chasing rainbows" in this way.
"I think those that have stuck to their more July, August lambing, they've still got a window to build green feed before they lamb," he said.
"So for those that are actually lambing soon or now, they're really betting on getting an average or earlier than average break really.
"You just have to manage that lambing as best as you possibly can."
Mr Trompf said this better management required a focus on ewe condition.
"It drives so many things, the birth weight of the lamb, milk production, maternal behaviour," he said.
He said if farmers had those things on their side, they would fair better, even if there was a late break.
"It's worse if you've got a hungry ewe in that circumstance and an under condition scored ewe having light birth weight lambs," he said.
"When the season breaks in June, there's no paddock feed for protection, there's a lack of nutrition, cold weather, that's not ideal."
