Beef producer calls on the Bureau to deliver 'reliable' long-term forecasts

Brian Nolan, Killingworth, has been critical of the Bureau of Meteorology's long-term forecasts and information prior to the October 2022 floods, and believes the Bureau "overplayed their hand".

He said they received 105 millimetres of rain on Monday and were near flooded areas and farmers who delayed sowing crops because they believed it would be "too dry".

"Panic would be a reasonable term for some of this, cattle were coming down from Queensland to be slaughtered because people thought it would be the Sahara Desert here," he said.

His wife, Ronda, is a third-generation farmer on their 100-hectare Killingworth property, near Yea, with 70-head of beef cattle above a river flat.

He said they had an "extraordinary" amount of feed after consistent, heavy rain.

"We held on to some of our cattle, but other farmers, not just in our area but further north in New South Wales and Queensland, were sending their cattle down south for sale," Mr Nolan said.

"Because people were expecting it would be so dry, they wouldn't be able to feed their cattle.

"But it's the complete opposite, not just in Victoria but further north they've had devastating floods."

In September, the Bureau declared an El Nino, and claimed the pattern would last until the end of summer.

At the time, they projected warm and dry weather, and Victoria would see an extension of the forecast dry conditions.

A Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson said August to October 2023 was the "driest such period" on record for Australia, with warm temperatures.

They said September was the driest September on record, and second-driest month ever recorded.

The Bureau's most recent long-range forecast overview claimed February to April temperatures would very likely be above median for most of Australia, while rain would likely be below median for parts of southern Australia.

Its prior forecast, published one week ago, said January to March rainfall would likely be above median across the south-east of Australia.

Mr Nolan said he was disappointed in the variability of the long-term forecasts.

"It's not short term, no one would blame them if they said we'd have a wet week and we don't have a wet week, that's fine, but it's long term," he said.

"I know they're not in the business of hope or optimism, but they should be in the business of providing safe and secure, up-to-date information."

The Bureau spokesperson said November and December rain helped ease eastern Australia's dry conditions and heavy rain and humid conditions followed the record-dry start to spring.

"No two El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole events are the same and their impact on Australia varies," they said.

"This is particularly true of summer months."

The spokesperson said once the northern monsoon arrived, the El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole influence would be diminished, and the chance of summer rain events would increase.

They said about half of the past El Nino events had heavy rain events, and cited December 2009 and August 2015, when Illawarra had more than 400mm of rain in two days.

They said a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) with high temperatures likely contributed to recent severe rain events.

"It is unusual to see a persistently positive SAM during El Nino, as that is more typical during a La Nina phase," the spokesperson said.

"The widespread and regular rainfall across southeastern Australia across multiple months is similarly unusual for El Nino.

"The Bureau will continue to update the community as new observations of the ocean, land surface and atmosphere are incorporated into our forecast systems."

Phelan & Henderson & Co director Simon Henderson said he had a client between Yarram and Sale who was nervous about the dry conditions during spring.

"But then it rained and things turned around, then they were cutting hay in Giffard West which is sheep country," he said.

"I went up to Carcoar, NSW, in November and bought some cattle, and it had rained a little bit, and prices were dearer.

"Angus weaner steers made $2.60 a kilo and now they're making $3-$3.50 depending on their weight."

He said he believed the Bureau were doing a reasonable job in delivering information, particularly in a print format.

"When it's in the paper it's quite clear and easy to read with the colour-coded charts and maps," he said.

"They need to be more direct in their verbal delivery."

Mr Nolan said farmers relied on the Bureau's forecast to plan their harvest and sowing programs, stock numbers and general farming decisions.

"You have to have someone give you reliable information or they won't trust what you're saying," he said.

"They're the experts that people rely on and if they get it so fundamentally wrong, then what?

"It's not like they wet their finger in the morning and ask which way the wind is blowing, they have science and technology."