Victorian farmers are being encouraged to make decisions based on local conditions instead of dry weather forecasts when it comes to destocking sheep or cattle.
In their latest drought report, the Bureau of Meteorology stated that September was the driest on record, with state-wide rainfall 67.1 per cent below average.
But Victorian Farmers Federation Livestock Group president Scott Young said farmers should justify destocking herds or flocks based on current local seasonal and environmental conditions.
"Forecasts are things that haven't happened yet, and it's important to not highly speculate about what the weather will be like," he said.
"If it doesn't turn the way that weather has forecast, farmers could lose thousands of dollars purely by what the weather forecast is saying."
Gippsland experienced rainfalls of more than 160 millimetres in 36 hours earlier this month, which had set up the spring season perfectly for some farmers in the region.
Mr Young said conditions were reasonable in Victoria, and dry forecasts focusing on eastern Australia didn't imply the same dryness would happen locally.
"I do have a concern that farmers are basing decisions on weather forecasts only when we don't really know how reliable they can be," he said.
"There could be spots where it is okay, and farmers should not destock if they don't need to."
Planfarm business advisor Dan Toohey said that while some of his clients were considering trading in lambs to conserve fodder, most weren't looking to destock right now and trying to avoid rash decisions,.
"Clients are definitely acknowledging the fact that the outlook potentially for the next three months is drier than the long-term average, but history tells us that doesn't always pan out as well," he said.
"A lot of my growers that I work with are actually quite well prepared in terms of fodder reserves and making sure they have buffer room within their operation to get them through the short term."
Mr Toohey said it was important for farmers to look at their data and have a contingency plan for third, second, and first-class stock if extreme weather events occur in their region.
"There should be a bit of an acknowledgement around what class of stock could be moved on if feed dried out," he said.
"It's also important to work numbers out on what it would take if farmers decide to hold on to that first-class stock.
"These are things like figuring out costs in terms of holding that stock, the potential long-term outlook on the other side, and understanding how long the business, justifiably, can afford to do all that."
He said looking at paddocks regularly, understanding their fodder conservation, and knowing what local water reserves were available could prepare farmers well if little summer rain did come to Victoria.
