Bureau of Meteorology predicts a drier, warmer spring for Victoria

Bureau senior meteorologist Angus Hines said the state had an increased chance of an unusually dry spring, particularly in parts of the west and south.

Australia's fire agencies had also identified an increased risk from bushfires, for parts of the Mallee, Wimmera and east Gippsland, he said.

The forecast comes on the back of a dry winter.

"Victoria is on track to record its second warmest winter on record, with the state's mean temperature 1.13 degrees above the 1961-90 average," Mr Hines said.

"All of the state had above average day and night time temperatures, most of the southern and eastern areas were much drier than usual, this winter."

Victorian conditions are part of a seasonal forecast that will dash the hopes of farmers hoping for rain during the spring,

The Spring Outlook shows in large swathes of the country, including Victoria, southern South Australia and south-west WA, there is less than a 20 per cent chance of exceeding the median September to November rainfall.

Only north-west Western Australia and the south coast of NSW at neutral or better odds of getting more rain than the median.

The temperature outlook is even more strongly certain of above average temperatures with nearly all the country an 80pc or above chances of warmer than normal weather.

BoM senior climatologist Lynette Bettio said the long-range forecast was influenced by a number of factors, including sea surface temperatures in the Pacific similar to those experienced in an El Nino, the potential for an Indian Ocean Dipole positive event forming and record warm oceans globally.

"While there were some patches of Australia that were above average rainfall for winter, mainly on the back of unseasonably wet conditions in late June, Australia as a whole was 8 per cent below average rainfall for winter," Dr Bettio said.

"There is still good soil moisture in the north and central parts of the country but the soil is drying out in the east and parts of the south."

Generally there is a good buffer against drought with most of the nation's major water storages above 80pc of capacity, however Dr Bettio said there were some already below 50pc, primarily in Queensland.

She said temperature-wise it had also been very warm.

The national mean temperature for winter is currently tracking to be 1.54°C above the 1961-1990 average, which would make it Australia's warmest winter since 1996.

In the northern hemisphere there were the hottest temperatures ever recorded in many areas, meaning July was the hottest month globally ever.

The BoM continues to stop short of calling an official El Nino, with the measure remaining at alert, or a 70pc chance of an El Nino forming.

Climate models also suggest a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely in spring.

The last two weeks have seen the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index above the positive IOD threshold of +0.4 degrees.

However, the BoM said several more weeks of positive IOD values are needed to have more confidence on whether a positive IOD event is emerging.

BoM climate services manager Karl Braganza said there was a significant contrast in climatic conditions this spring compared to last year when Australia had its second-wettest spring on record.

The BoM's historical accuracy for forecasts is at its peak in spring and early summer.