Wannon will continue to stay in Liberal hands despite major boundary changes and a shifts in demographics possibly urging a slight swing away from the Liberals, according to a leading academic in regional politics.
Deakin University's Dr Geoffrey Robinson said the Federal Trade, Tourism and Investment Minister Dan Tehan - who holds Wannon by a margin of 10.2 per cent - should win the seat easily at the polls on May 21.
He said the lack of active campaigning from the major parties in the electorate before and during the campaign is concerning however.
"Almost anecdotally, there's not much sign of campaigning on the ground where I live in the electorate except some enthusiastic person was put up lots of United Australia party posters all up and down the road," Dr Robinson said.
Wannon is the second largest electorate in Victoria and covers more than 33,000 square kilometres in south western Victoria and includes parts of the Grampions, The Otways, Warrnambool, Ararat, Hamilton, the majority of the Surf Coast, all the way to the South Australian border.
The redistribution of borders for the electorate had the seat lose staunch Labor areas near Ballarat, but will pick up the Otways and Surf Coast.
But Dr Robertson said the boundary changes shouldn't see too much of a swing despite possible demographic changes.
"The border changes should make much difference to the margin and it remains a safe Liberal seat, but I would expect perhaps that the newer areas are probably more likely to swing than the rural areas.
"Those coastal regions, which are increasingly suburbanised with more lifestyle amenities, might swing quite a bit against the Liberal Party in Victoria."
"The safeness of the seat for the Liberals is majorly driven by agriculture which is the main workforce, and their cultural patterns, associated with individualism, owning your own property and not wanting government to get in the way."
Dr Robertson said the sector sets the political tone Wannon, and even voting places in larger towns like Colac will stick to their conservative leanings.
Glenelg shire councillor Gilbert Wilson will contest the seat for Labor, focusing on a local campaign to improve jobs at the only manufacturer of wind turbines in the state, Keppel Prince, located in Portland.
He has also said throughout his campaigning that said the top three issues voters wanted action on were climate change, women's safety and better conditions for aged care residents.
Mr Tehan has also announced grants worth more than $1 million to diversify exports and help meet the growing demand for timber in region.
An independent candidate, who is backed by the Climate 200 group, could possibly shake things up in the seat.
Former Triple J radio host and small business owner Alex Dyson is the only other candidate than Mr Tehan contesting the seat again after running in 2019.
Dr Robertson said Mr Dyson could make the outcome interesting, but it would be a monumental achievement if he did win Wannon.
"I think he's an interesting voice in this region and did relatively well last time getting around 10 per cent of the vote," he said.
"He more was taking votes from Labor and the Greens last time, but he did also take some votes from the Liberals.
"With him teaming up with those 'Voices For' groups, climate action campaigners, he will have a good chance of increasing his vote, but it'll be a bit of a mountain to overturn for him to get up."
The seat has been continuously held by the Coalition since 1955, and was previously held by former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser.
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