Mutton prices have fallen 16 per cent or the equivalent of 61 cents a kilogram over the course of a week.
Meat & Livestock Australia's Mutton indicator slipped to 317c/kg with big numbers driving down rates.
According to National Livestock Reporting Service data, Australia offered 75,000 sheep last week.
The major cause is a surge in supply year-on year, which is why mutton took such a big hit.
And for a market to turn around, there must be some bullish news and at this point, there isn't any.
Meat & Livestock Australia senior analyst Ripley Atkinson has forecast a bumper sheep meat year for 20223.
Growth is forecast across all states with substantial expansions anticipated in four states including South Australia and Western Australia, Queensland, and Tasmania.
Victoria and NSW are also forecast to increase their numbers but not to the level of the other states.
In 2024, the national flock numbers are expected to plateau to settle at about 79.5 million head.
The one positive sign for Australia's mutton is New Zealand sheep flock numbers are in decline.
This will leave the door open for an increased market share on the world stage.
In opening mutton sales on Monday, mutton fell $15-$30 a head with the level of demand the issue.
Good numbers of mutton are also going direct to processors as producers shy away from the see-sawing price returns from the auction system.
Mutton generally averaged 250c-380c/kg carcase weight at selling centers.
At the close of selling, the mutton indicator dipped to 309c/kg cwt.
At Bendigo on Monday, plainer quality was a big factor in a smaller yarding of 10,700 lambs and 4800 sheep.
A lot of lambs were off grass and showing varying fat cover and carcase finish.
This created a very erratic market.
The National Livestock Reporting Service noted it was difficult to get a reliable quote on some categories in the sale.
There were premiums paid for trade lambs at the top end which combined to lift rates $3-$8
Lambs 21-24 kilograms sold at $150-$200 to average 785c/kg cwt.
Heavy lambs 26-30kg had the strongest and most consistent price performance lifting $20.
The market is staring down at growing pressure points of limited supplies, pushing buyers to up the ante.
Lambs more than 30kg cwt gained $7 and made from $245-$268.
At another Victorian saleyard, the market at Ballarat on Tuesday did trade around quality, with buyers prepared to pay more for lambs with shape and good fat cover.
Trade lambs gained $4-$10 to average 808c/kg cwt.
Heavy lambs rallied $9.
The majority of heavy lambs at Ballarat sold from $216-$290.
- Leann Dax is an NLRS market reporter.
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