Bushfire researchers believe Victoria's threat of destructive bushfires this year will be somewhat subdued, but are stopping short of urging primary producers to be complacent on the back of widespread rain across much of the state.
High moisture levels are driving academics to predict a relatively mild fire season this month, but extreme records of rainfall in parts of Victoria have renewed calls for farmers to be vigilant about the dangers and consequences of grassfires - one of the biggest threats farmers could face this summer, experts warn.
University of Melbourne Professor Trent Penman, a bushfire risk modeller, said Victoria was "certainly" in a better position heading into December compared to the months leading up to the Black Summer fires in 2019/20.
"There has been a substantial amount of that [rain] in most parts of the state so at this point we wouldn't expect any major forest fires," Professor Penman said.
"The challenge comes as we move into summer and grass and cropland areas may become at risk if we don't continue to receive this rainfall."
A CSIRO study released this week has found climate change has driven Australia's bushfire incidents in the past three decades, revealing the average annual forest area burnt has risen 800 per cent in that time.
RELATED READING: Climate change driving 800pc rise in bushfire activity: CSIRO
The project analysed 30 years of satellite data and 90 years of ground-based datasets from climate and weather observations, and found parts of Australia were experiencing longer fire seasons leading into autumn and winter compared to 30 years ago.
"There is always a chance we can get a fire if there is hot, dry and windy weather for a couple of weeks," Professor Penman said.
"Areas could very easily switch on and that doesn't need to be widespread, it could be a local event."
He said it was important this year farmers were well prepared for a range of scenarios.
"There is no fire season where people should sit back and relax so for everybody to continue to do their normal preparations and as they say, prepare for the worst and hope for the best really applies to this season," he said.
Woolgrower Stephen Hill, Mount Mittamatite, believes he is well-placed heading into summer, but says his view could change quickly should the consistent rain stop.
Mr Hill's property, near Corryong in the north-east, was completely burnt by the Black Summer fires, however, he managed to save a vast majority of his superfine Merino and crossbred flocks.
"My farm hadn't burnt in 70 years so there was an enormous fuel load there because we face an easterly aspect which means it's always pretty wet," he said.
"You wouldn't believe it though because since having a burn, the pastures have really improved.
His property consists of cleared creek flats, undulating hills and steep mountain flanks still timbered.
"We've had a pretty bloody handy season which always helps and any of the introduced perennial pastures rebounded well after the fires, and native pastures look better than what they were before the fires," he said.
"We're still getting rain and we've got rain forecast this week so everything is still green but the problem is there are paddocks locked up for silage because it's been too wet to cut them.
"If it stops raining and we have a month or six weeks of hot, dry weather then there will be a pretty big fuel load in paddocks and that's one of our biggest worries."
Latrobe University's Jim Radford, a principal fellow at the Research Centre for Future Landscapes, said the severity of the fire season would ultimately depend on how much rain the state would receive in summer.
He said a wet autumn, winter and spring for parts of Victoria had helped with a "prolonged and profuse" wildflower season, spurring on the growth of native grasses.
"A wet spring and a wet summer will increase the amount of fuel, particularly in grasses, because they respond quickest to rainfall," Dr Radford said.
"But if it continues to rain through summer, the fuel moisture remains high so even though there is a high fuel load and a lot of biomass, the risk wouldn't be as high as if we had a wet spring and then a dry summer.
"Having said that, grasses can cure and dry very quickly so overall we might have a wet summer and it only takes a couple of weeks for grasses to dry out and that does pose an elevated fire risk."
Climate outlooks for summer indicate average rainfall for most of Victoria with generally warmer than average conditions in the west, and cooler than average conditions in the east of the state.
Forest Fire Management Victoria chief fire officer Chris Hardman said the predicted rainfall combined with underlying moisture levels means there is a low likelihood of large-scale forest fires this year.
He said Victorian authorities conducted 470 burns last financial year, spanning more than 133,000 hectares of public land, and an additional 49 burns over 2000 hectares from July to the end of October.
Dr Caitlin Pfeiffer, a lecturer in Veterinary Epidemiology at the University of Melbourne, who specialises in effective fire preparation and practical actions for farmers, said it was important farmers had a fire plan in place to protect assets and livestock, regardless of the seasonal conditions.
She is leading a project funded by Meat & Livestock Australia looking at bushfire preparation and recovery for red meat producers following the Black Summer fires.
The project involves 60 farmers, including 15 across north-east and eastern Victoria, who were affected by the 2019/20 fires.
"Our study has shown that having a fire plan is one of the most important things you can do to protect your livestock," Dr Pfeiffer said.
"Working out and identifying where abouts on the farm you would put those livestock if a fire were approaching is important, along with managing the vegetation.
"Once you've decided where you'll put those livestock, grazing those areas down to reduce the fuel load is important because you don't want lots of dry standing pasture in those places."
Bryce Eishold
Bryce is a senior journalist with Australian Community Media's Stock & Land where he reports on all aspects of agriculture. Bryce is also the president of the Rural Press Club of Victoria. Email Bryce at bryce.eishold@stockandland.com.au.
Bryce is a senior journalist with Australian Community Media's Stock & Land where he reports on all aspects of agriculture. Bryce is also the president of the Rural Press Club of Victoria. Email Bryce at bryce.eishold@stockandland.com.au.
