The government must focus on managing and modelling the Murray-Darling Basin's water during drought periods, an industry stakeholder says.
An Agribusiness Australia-hosted event on Thursday had 130 registered farmers and stakeholders ready to listen about a recent Federal Government Bill's implications.
The Federal Government passed the Restoring Our Rivers Bill through parliament on December 7, 2023, which aimed to give more time to meet water recovery targets at the Murray-Darling Basin.
The conference had speakers Aither founder Chris Olszack, who specialises in water policy and economy, Cobram Estate Olives chair Rob, LAWD senior director Danny Thomas and Member for Murray Plains Peter Walsh.
Mr Olszak said the government opened up the potential for buybacks and "a number of mechanisms" to deliver its desired environmental water, but there was a "good chance" it could fail to meet the figure.
He said about 2000gl of water had been recovered for the environment, about 20-30pc of the total entitlement.
"What's been a debate in progress for the past 10 years has been the sustainable diversion adjustment mechanism," he said.
He said an additional 450 gigalitres was required under the new legislation and a further 605gl for offset projects, meaning investment in works to help deliver environmental outcomes without needing to buy back water.
"It's also opened up the potential for buybacks to contribute to the 450gl," he said.
Mr Olszack said they were still unaware how the government would reach its target and whether it would buy back water.
Mr McGavin, Cobram Estate, said allowing non-productive users over consumptive users into the temporary water market was a fundamental issue.
"It's allowing non-productive users into the temporary water market to buy unlimited volumes when that water becomes unavailable or too expensive for consumptive users," he said.
"We had a bit of a taste of this in the last drought."
He said it was "nonsensical", because it was an artificial market people join to make money, when people may need it to keep livestock going.
"Consumptive users compete with each other in periods of drought," he said.
"The second issue is the peak and trough is worse now because the baseline demand disappears, dairy farmers in the Goulburn are basically gone."
He said with the Federal Government purchasing 20-30pc of water in the southern-connected basin, it would be a "disaster".
"It's a disaster because they haven't rescinded it to let it flow down the river for more natural flows, they've held it in storages which effectively means the irrigation water is less secure than it was," he said.
"When there's a drought, they want to pump it all to SA.
"All the traders come in and say 'geez, they're announcing an El Nino we'll hold this water and stockpile it'.
"[Stockpiling] the temporary water, which communities desperately need, is absolutely immoral and it'll blow up in the next bad drought, and I don't know why they aren't trying to fix it."
He said it was important to identify the best use of water during periods of drought.
"There's no accountability on what's best for the nation," he said.
"If the BoM says there's going to be another El Nino, when the drought comes there'll be storages half full of water and companies will be broke."
Mr Walsh said as the government edged closer to its next election campaign, it may have to enter the market with a high price to achieve its goals.
"The Commonwealth will have to find someone who will sell to get what they want," he said.
"I wouldn't be a fast seller."
Mr Olszack said most people were trying to develop strategies to manage the capital efficiency equation in the long term.
"Most horticultural businesses below the Murray, I can't think of any with full coverage of entitlements," he said.
"In the lower Murray, it will add pressure in a drought year.
"There won't be enough water to go around."
He said there needed to be a stronger focus on outcomes of water management and achieving it part of the environmental audit was about managing the river optimally.
"A huge portfolio of the environmental audit now is how are we going to manage it optimally?," he said.
"Governments can't seem to get their stuff together, and have those sensible conversations about the best way to manage the river.
"Because there's too much time spent about fighting numbers in the water recovery plan."
Mr Thomas, LAWD, said there would be opportunities for large, privately-owned water holders to make the most of buy backs.
"It will facilitate them retiring and financial succession for the family," he said.
"At the end of the day it's a natural resource, it's absolutely finite."