Tens of thousands of cattle will go under the hammer across Victoria in the first two weeks of January as the industry pays close attention to the rain radar.
Beef buyers say demand from NSW, Queensland and to a lesser extent, South Australia, will be determined by rainfall over the Christmas period - an indication of how confident buyers will be heading into the 2024 southern weaner sales series.
While prices for young cattle have rallied in recent weeks, some industry insiders say buyers will "be a lot more sensitive this year" after the margin between the cattle they bought in early-2023 and the same product 12 months on has narrowed significantly.
The two-week series, which typically is driven by demand from interstate buyers, will start at Wodonga and Wangaratta on January 2, with sales at Yea, Naracoorte, SA, Mount Gambier, SA, Mortlake and Colac taking place between January 2-6.
From January 8, the focus will turn to western Victoria with sales at Hamilton and Casterson throughout the week, along with sales at Euroa, Yea, and Mortlake.
Grazier Steve Clarke, Deepdale Partnership, Tallarook, sells about 350 mixed-sex Angus calves at Wangaratta's weaner sale each year, and said despite concerns about the effects of an El Nino, farmers were experiencing a "fair dinkum" season.
"Contrary to all the talk about El Nino, we had a good autumn, a good winter and a reasonable spring, but according to the BoM, the way they portrayed it, we were in for the toughest season of all time," he said.
"That never arrived, thankfully, and it's actually been a good season all the way through.
"We won't see the premiums we have seen in the past, but we should get some kind of reasonable result compared to what we were looking at eight weeks ago."
Mr Clark said the ideal seasonal conditions would pay dividends on sale day, with many of his nine-month-old weaner cattle set to average in the mid-300 kilogram range.
He said some of his cattle would weigh even more, something many graziers north of the Murray River would struggle to do with their young cattle.
"I have a few friends in the north through NSW and they have had a tough year," he said.
"A lot of people up there won't have a lot of cattle with weight about them, but that is a different story here in the south where there is a lot of weight on our cattle.
"We did weight some calves when we were treating them and we were surprised that they were in the mid-300ks in September and October so some of those cattle will be considerably heavier than that."
Western Victorian agent Lanyons Stock and Station Agents director Warren Clark, Hamilton, said more than 15,000 cattle would pass through the Hamilton Regional Livestock Exchange in the second week of January.
"I feel a lot better than what I did two months ago, it's amazing what a bit of rain has done around the country," he said.
"It's injected a bit of life back into the store cattle market.
"Prior to two months ago, graziers feared calves wouldn't make 300 cents a kilogram on sale day, but I think moving forward the bulk of the cattle, especially the steers, will have a three in front of them."
Elders Casterton territory sales manager Sam Tooley said the top pens of steers at Casterton would weigh in the vicinity of 360-390kg.
"I don't expect we will have too many pens top 400kg at our sales," he said.
"The quality of the cattle is good and they will be a bit heavier than last year on the average weights.
"It was so wet this time last year, but this year because of the dry weather, a lot of the feed has taken off and gone to head and as a result the cattle have done better ... you can see that by looking at them."
He said annual drafts at Casterton could weigh 10-15kg heavier on average compared to their 2023 counterparts.
"We always attract good local support, along with support from Gippsland, north-east Victoria and lower NSW," Mr Tooley said.
"From who we've been talking to in the last few weeks, we've seen good interest from Elders representatives from across those areas."
Buyer Andrew Whan, Miller, Whan & John, Mount Gambier, SA, typically buys cattle for restocking clients in the lower south-east of SA and south-west of Victoria.
He said people who bought weaners last year and had already sold them had "not made a lot of money out of them".
"Buyers will be a lot more sensitive this year, but ultimately it will depend on what rain NSW gets over the coming weeks," Mr Whan, who buys Angus steers and Black Baldies, said.
Meat & Livestock Australia global supply analyst Tim Jackson said substantial rain in northern Australia was the key to a successful southern weaner sales series in terms of demand and pricing.
"We can probably say that prices have jumped a fair way from the lows that we saw in October and even in September," he said.
"In the last few weeks, prices have fallen a little bit, but still remain a fair way in front of where they were a couple of months ago.
"That was driven by that really substantial rain that we saw across the east coast a couple of weeks ago, particularly in southern Queensland and northern and central NSW."
Bryce Eishold
Bryce is a senior journalist with Australian Community Media's Stock & Land where he reports on all aspects of agriculture. Bryce is also the president of the Rural Press Club of Victoria. Email Bryce at bryce.eishold@stockandland.com.au.
Bryce is a senior journalist with Australian Community Media's Stock & Land where he reports on all aspects of agriculture. Bryce is also the president of the Rural Press Club of Victoria. Email Bryce at bryce.eishold@stockandland.com.au.
