Urea price drop globally unlikely to help Australian growers in the short term

According to Australian commodity analysts Episode 3, the input has come under considerable pressure in January, dropping to A$645/t on average - a stark contrast to the January 2022 price of A$1090/t.

Analyst Andrew Whitelaw said a mild European winter saw the price of gas, a driving force of inputs, drop, which was then reflected in the Middle Eastern price.

"The big question now is whether this fall in price will be passed on to producers," Mr Whitelaw said.

The limited transparency in Australian fertiliser pricing, however, makes it difficult for growers to compare quotes.

MCA Agronomy director Paul Gardoll, Goondiwindi, said the price had come back in recent months but couldn't say if the global reduction would significantly budge prices for farmers.

"Compared to six months ago it's probably dropped $400-500/t. Whether we can get sub $1000 urea - I think everyone is hoping but I just don't know," he said.

AgForce grains president and Warra grower Brendan Taylor said he hadn't received a quote recently, but he wasn't aware of a significant price shift on the ground.

"I have heard urea is back in the $1100/t range, which is the cheapest it's been for 12 months, but it's not $600 or $700, which is where it needs to be," he said.

Mr Taylor said most fertiliser programs for the southern and western summer crops had finished and some growers had already locked in inputs for the winter crop.

However, CQ growers still waiting for the February sowing window to open and some winter croppers willing to wait it out may see cheaper prices.

Mr Taylor said while sorghum prices were solid at $370 ex GST, high urea prices would continue to impact bottom lines for some time.

"We're about to pay the summer crop nutrition bill this month and it was huge. When urea is $1200/t and you're putting on rates of up to 200kg/ha, that runs into a lot of money."

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