Northern Victorian dairy farmers will have one less input cost to worry about this upcoming season - the price of water.
Allocation prices are set to tumble, after Murray River High Reliability Water Share seasonal determinations were set at their highest level in two decades.
Northern Victoria Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the Murray opening seasonal determination had been set at 94 per cent of HRWS,
The Goulburn and Loddon systems begins with 66pc HRWS.
The Campaspe system starts 2022/23 with 70pc HRWS, the Broken system 38pc HRWS and the Bullarook system with 19pc HRWS.
Dr Bailey said the systems had annual storages, so were reset at the start of each irrigation season.
"Lake Nillahcootie is spilling so with the allocations calculations we have to assume we rely on the storage for the whole year," Dr Bailey said.
"With the Broken system there are relatively high losses in parts of the stream, so that takes away some of the availability for water to allocate to seasonal determinations.
"The Bullarook system a bit the same, but storages are filling relatively quickly so we are anticipating that will jump up."
Dr Bailey said the opening seasonal determination in Murray system was the highest since 2002/03.
"The reserves established last season enabled the Murray system to start with the highest seasonal determination in 20 years," he said.
"The opening seasonal determination in the Goulburn system is the highest since 2017/18."
Determinations often started quite low but could accelerate quite quickly," he said.
"Dartmouth is around 95 per cent, Hume is around 95pc, and being pre-released, the Menindee Lakes system is at capacity and there are steady inflows to come, for a few months.
"The Murray system is looking to most optimistic it has been for about 20 years, at least.
"A lot of the industries are very happy with the low allocation prices at the moment, dairy is going to be one of the main beneficiaries."
He said the large trading market would be downstream in the lower Murray, for permanent plantings.
"All of our irrigators are happy, unless they are sellers."
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Dr Bailey said the Bureau of Meteorology was forecasting the remainder of the winter and spring would be wet.
"Nobody wants floods at all, and particularly nothing like NSW is seeing at present - there is an elevated risk this year, with the storages being so full, I can assure you the water corporations are doing all the right preparations at the moment."
"With all the concerns in the rest of the world, its good to know the concerns about water have been somewhat aleviated, this season," he said.
Dr Bailey urged Murray system customers to note the effect of continued releases from Lake Hume for airspace management.
"The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is continuing to manage the rate of filling at Lake Hume. Entitlements holders in the Murray system should note a deduction from spillable water accounts will occur in mid-August after the volumes released during July are confirmed.
"The situation at Lake Hume means the risk of spill in the Murray system is effectively 100pc," Dr Bailey said.
"The risk of spill from Lake Eildon in the Goulburn system is about 80pc cent and the risk of spill from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system is about 20pc."
Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding this season.
"The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages."
Andrew Miller
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
