As spring begins, farmers are preparing for what will be a wetter than average season across most of Victoria.
After a La Nina alert was issued in early August, the Bureau of Meteorology has risen the chance of the weather pattern happening even further, with four of seven climate models showing the weather pattern's conditions could return by early-to-mid spring.
The other three models suggest a neutral but cooler-than-average outlook.
Senior climatologist Jonathon Pollock said the odds of it being wetter than average across the state were greater than at least 50 per cent, but some areas will be wetter than others through spring.
"The north and northeast and East Gippsland have the highest chances of being wet at above 80 per cent, and those chances will taper and gradually reduce towards the south and southwest," he said.
"Parts along the coast only have a slight increase of above average spring rainfall, but they also have a chance of above average spring rainfall."
READ MORE:
Mr Pollock said areas that remain particularly dry, like the Mallee, might be in an unusually wet season according to the outlook, with Mildura getting a greater than 80pc chance of a wetter than average season.
Areas throughout the Mallee have also dipped just below an 80pc chance for a wetter than average season.
Mr Pollock said outlooks change weekly but forecasters were keeping a close eye on the current negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
"If a [La Nina] does occur, that pattern would more or less lock-in, and you could expect it to last throughout summer, but we don't have an outlook for December to February officially," he said.
Senior manager researcher at the Birchip Cropping Group James Murray said the wetter outlook for the Wimmera-Mallee and the northern regions over spring would be "massively positive if it comes through".
"Crops are looking really good around the place, and they are going to take a bit of rain to finish them off, but we don't have too many concerns about it getting too wet in this part of the world, which is a bit of a rarity," he said.
However, Mr Murray said some challenges presented if such an outlook occurred.
"In the short term, the biggest challenge is disease management, so a lot of wheat with a lot of rust throughout it, which is being heavily managed and had to be managed further as the season progresses if it stays wet," he said.
"In some of our legume crops, we may get diseases through spring, including botrytis grey mould, which start to kick about right now and can be prevalent in weather where there is a combination of moisture and warm conditions."
"When we get closer to harvest time, there will be some challenges in the logistics of getting crops off before any rainfall on those crops, which may see a downgrade in quality through staining or potentially sprouting as we get to harvest."
"Hail will also be an issue, which was evident in the most recent storm system that came through that while it wasn't widespread, some patches saw crop damage from major storm events,"
Nathan Albrecht, Antwerp, who grows canola, wheat, barley, vetches and beans over his two farms said he received 32 to 35 millimetres from a recent storm system.
He said that for the first time this year, he saw water in his crabholes.
While he may "lose a few acres here and there", the rest of the paddock will make up for what he will lose.
"We would rather know that we have water laying in the paddocks rather than not seeing water at all," he said.
"If there is water in the paddock and we have to drive the header around the crabholes then so be it,"
He also said his biggest concern was frost in upcoming month, but they will "keep battling along" and hoping for warmer temperatures along with the rain.
Over in East Gippsland, Kevin Dean, Tambo Crossing, runs Angus cattle and sheep.
He said his region's higher-than-average outlook for rains is peachy for his cattle.
"We don't flood here, so it's not bad news and we have had enough rain, but we will probably need some rain later in spring here," Mr Dean said.
"If anything, it would be great to get some sunshine and wind nearer to October which can draw off some top soil, but there is a lot of moisture down deeper,"
But he has worries over what a wetter season may mean for his sheep.
"We haven't had a dry period to break that cycle of worms here in our area, so it could be a disastrous year for things like barber's poll this summer if we don't get our drenches right, and can't get them on reasonably clean pasture," he said.
"If we can't control those worms, we will struggle a bit."
