Before widespread flooding, Victoria's total winter crop was set to come in at 11.5 million tonnes - a record exceeding the last record for the financial year of 2020/21 by 17 per cent.
RaboBank revealed the outlook in their latest Australian Winter Crop Forecast for 2022/23, which also noted the cropping outcome would have been up on last year by 26 per cent.
While it was too early to fully ascertain what recent Victorian flooding may mean for those records, RaboResearch agricultural analyst Dennis Voznesenski said most of Victoria's farmers will face "yield, volume and quality downgrades due to excessive rains, washed out fields and unharvestable crops".
"There has been significant impact to yields on low-lying crops with many under water in central and northern Victoria, however crops on rolling and rising country have fared better," he said.
"While Victoria was on track to break production records until last week, we are going to have to wait for all the forecast rainfall to come through and for waters to recede to see the full impact of the rains on production.
"The unfavourable conditions mean harvest is likely to be drawn out into January."
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But a significant increase in last year's rainfall across the drier Mallee and Wimmera regions will set up some local farmers to harvest record crop yields.
Nationally, the newly released Rabobank 2022/23 showed that despite the weather challenges in NSW and Victoria, Australia is planning to harvest its third consecutive bumper winter crop.
The forecast for the whole country is set to be down only one per cent on last year - which broke all-time production records - but the total grain crop is estimated to be 41 per cent above the five-year average.
Western Australia and South Australia are set to break production records, while Queensland will also see a large crop harvest.
But Mr Voznesenski said parts of southern Queensland along with NSW and Victoria will "see considerably less hectares harvested than were planted due to excessive rains either at planting, during the growing season or leading right into harvest."
The report also said Australia would have a large amount of grain and oilseeds for the export market, but the ability to supply world markets will be limited by supply chain bottlenecks, both in regional areas and with capacity at ports.
"When an approximate figure is also added for still unsold 2021/22 crop, the exportable surplus could rise to 53.5 million tonnes, and this does not include an unknown volume of grain owned by the grain trade itself," Mr Voznesenski said.
