Nationals mixed Victorian federal election response

Victorian regional electorates have seen strong swings to National Party and Labor incumbents in the north-west, around Geelong and in Gippsland.

Read more: Nicholls, Indi, Corangamite and Mallee: The influential seats to watch this federal election

ABC election analyst Antony Green posted Independent Helen Haines, Indi, also enjoyed a 7.3pc swing towards her, easily beating off her Liberal challenger.

In the south-west, Wannon saw a 4.5 pc swing away from the Liberal Party.

Although former Trade Minister Dan Tehan picked up 55.6pc of the two-party preferred vote, his margin was cut by 4.5pc.

And while the Nationals retained Nicholls, one of its safest seats, new MP Sam Birrell suffered a 15.5pc swing away from the party.

In a three-cornered contest, with the Liberals and independent Rob Priestly, the Nationals suffered a 24pc first-party preferred vote swing away from it.

Mallee MP Anne Webster saw a 4.2pc swing towards her to sit on nearly 70pc of the vote, while Gippsland MP Darren Chester also strengthened his hold on his seat.

Initial counting showing he had gained 71.2pc of the vote and a 4.5pc swing towards him.

In the Surf Coast and Geelong seat of Corangamite Labor MP Libby Coker also bolstered her position in what was previously a marginal electorate.

By Saturday night, she had 58.73pc of the two-party preferred vote, a swing of 7.7pc towards her, compared with a previous margin of 1.1pc.

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Deakin University senior lecturer in politics Geoff Robinson said although some analysts said Corangamite was 'in play' for the Liberal Party, having been visited by the former Prime Minister Scott Morrison several times, it was now following the lead of other regional Victorian centres.

"It's now in the Ballarat and Bendigo category," Dr Robinson said.

He said media reports on what was happening in individual seats were notoriously hard to rely on.

"Some of the smaller places like Inverleigh, the country towns and hamlets, swung fairly hard to Labor as well," he said.

"Everywhere in the seat voted like Geelong did.

"It came to mirror the national trend, regional areas proper were more resistant to the swing towards Labor, but obviously Corangamite is in the provincial city category

"Outside Queensland and WA most of the provincial cities tend to be pretty strong for Labor."

Cost of living pressures might have outweighed the impact of a good economy, he said.

Fewer independents ran in Mallee this election.

"Obviously, at the last election, votes went all over the place - although enough of them went to Dr Webster to elect her last time," Dr Robinson said.

"In Wannon the independent did better than I thought - he obviously has a profile in that Warrnambool region and increased his vote there."

He said in Gippsland, Mr Chester's moderate and middle of the road style would have appealed to many voters.

"I don't think Labor gave the seat much attention," he said.

"But there is going to be this ongoing division in the Nationals - do they model themselves on Chester and Webster, or do they model themselves on the (Senator) Matt Canavan approach with Barnaby Joyce stuck between those two?

"A lot of people are going to blame Joyce for them being on the back bench."

He said the 'teal' independents in inner Melbourne and Sydney sought to link the more conservative approach to climate change by the National Party to Liberal candidates -"a vote for (Treasurer) Frydenberg is a vote for Joyce."