Australia's treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is this week putting the finishing touches on his third Budget as an army of lobbyists and interest groups make last-ditch pitches for a slice of the nation's fiscal pie.
Agriculture is no different in wanting new spending to fill gaps and fix problems, seed funding to kick start initiatives and the continuation or expansion of lapsing or fledgling policy settings.
But what can the industry expect?
Firstly, Chalmers has said the 2024-25 renewal of the government's financial plan will place a "premium on responsibility and an emphasis on economic security".
Meaning targeted spending, modest cost-of-living assistance, stage three tax cuts, luring foreign tradies, student debt and a gun register but potential program cuts and reforms placed on the backburner.
While directing billions towards Labor's centrepiece "A Future Made in Australia" policy, that includes rumoured tax breaks for investors, and green transition plans.
The Budget will also build the theatre in which the year-long campaign to the next federal election will be acted out.
SETTING THE SCENE
As always there are optics to consider and this year the Budget will be delivered amid weakening commodity prices, a cash rate of 4.35 per cent, worsening global growth forecasts and a projected $13 billion surplus likely slipping into deficit next year.
Meanwhile, federal Labor MPs and Senators, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, have been crisscrossing the country to announce measures ahead of May 14.
This includes a Beef Week 2024 stopover with Agriculture Minister Murray Watt to unveil a $520 million restructure of the Future Drought Fund on Tuesday.
The announcement also backs-up what insiders have been suggesting for weeks: that producers can most certainly bank on new funding envelopes for on-farm and industry-wide decarbonisation strategies that will help the government meet its mandated 2030 and net-zero by 2050 targets.
A large clue to the contents of the Budget for farmers also lies in Mr Watt's areas of focus for the next 12 months, and what he therefore likely asked of Treasury. Animal welfare, First Nations agriculture, traceability, trade and drought are all high on a list far and away headed by sustainability and climate smart agriculture.
The lingering elephant in the room though is how much and when the government will pay to transition industry when the axe finally falls on the live sheep by sea export ban and whether those funds will be taken from agriculture's kitty.
And rumours are growing that the independent panel's report will be released prior to next Tuesday's budget, along with details of the government's transition plan.
The other apparent certainly though is that a big ticket cash splash is not on the cards, such as the surprise $1 billion sustainable biosecurity funding package that appeared last year.
Albeit part of that legislation, the controversial $51m biosecurity protection levy, remains in limbo and many commodity representative groups have used their 2024-25 pre-budget submissions to call for it to be dropped. While suggesting a container levy or charge on inbound freight be introduced in its place.
As government policy increasingly intertwines, the agriculture industry no longer just eyes agriculture's books as the policy of other ministries increasingly impact farm operations, including environment and water, workplace relations, foreign affairs, climate change and energy and infrastructure.
Likewise, industry budget requests have cut across a broad spectrum of the economy to form a strategic web, from bolstering regional infrastructure to fostering innovation in agricultural data and environmental stewardship, to increasing farm safety and suicide prevention programs and creating pathways for the next generation of farmers.
Other overlapping themes include bolstering the availability of overseas workers right along the agricultural supply chain and increasing incentives and training to attract unskilled locals.
COMMODITY WISH LIST
The Red Meat Advisory Council is keen to see spending that increases the sustainable growth and market expansion of export-orientated ag businesses at a time when global geopolitics is a tinderbox and other nations are turning inward with nationalist-orientated policies.
RMAC's other demands range from wanting $1b to facilitate generational-scale upgrades of Australia's trade regulatory and information systems, $4m to increase ag education in schools and $1m for Labor to meet an election promise to deliver accurate and clear food labelling standards for manufactured plant protein products.
It also called for government to help co-design agriculture specific climate and carbon investment strategies and the development of equitable and sustainable national traceability co-funding mechanisms.
Meanwhile, Sheep Producers Australia want additional eID transitional support packages that equitably reflect the regulatory costs incurred by producers and encourage efficient adoption of new eID regulations.
WoolProducers echoed the eID demand, while also wanting funding to establish a wool trade policy program, $30m over four years to continue the Agricultural Trade and Market Access Cooperation program and $175m for a farm worker accommodation stimulus package providing taxation concessions and incentives to accelerate the construction and upkeep of housing for shearers and other workers.
The National Farmers Federation submission contains 17 recommendations - totalling more than $5.64b - from pulling the levers on big policy to boosting on-farm productivity, including $2b to support complementary measures in the Murray-Darling Basin and $1b to improve international freight supply chains. it is also keen, along with the Regional Australia Institute, to see a decent regionalisation plan from the government.
GrainGrowers has also called for commitments to reduce supply chain costs and increase labour supply, to maintain the fuel tax excise rebate for off-road fuel and $100m of the National Reconstruction Fund to be used to develop local fertiliser manufacturing.
It also wants $50m allocated to the Regional Investment Corporation for a pilot loan to assist growers adopt low emission technologies and increased funding for the Roads to Recovery Program to $1b per year to support ongoing maintenance of the nation's local road infrastructure.
Grains farmers contributed $33b gross value of production to the Australian economy in 2022-23.
GrainGrowers chair Rhys Turton said while the industry already significantly contributes to the broader economy, further investment would only deliver greater value to the community and increased global market share for grains, pulses and oilseeds.
"If we are going to meet future challenges and opportunities, we need focused, strategic investment across a range of key areas," he said.
THE DECISION
Agriculture's collective pre-Budget pitch to Treasury has been thoughtfully considered and coordinated across commodities where appropriate, it is now up to the government where it meets industry demands.
Mr Chalmers however has refused to raise expectations in recent weeks and industry can expect a comparatively austere set of papers.
The Treasurer can also look to Victoria during his high-wire inflationary balancing act for a salient reminder of the fluctuating nature of political fortunes.
Labor came into power in that state a decade ago and has concentrated on costly, headline-grabbing roads and rail works while leaving essential services funding to drift in the wind.
But now the longevity of the big-spending Andrews/Allen government is its biggest problem, highlighted in the May 7 State Budget where things like mental health services were cut to the bone and even Big Build jobs delayed because it could no longer afford to deliver them and with no more expensive public assets to sell to cover the gap.
It is a government hitting the economic lean years of its own creation somehow still in power and having to clean up its own mess, a role normally begrudgingly assumed by a power-starved opposition after a long stint on the shadow benches.
Farming stakeholders hope the industry will not again fall victim to its own success.
That Canberra bean counters do not overlook agriculture as it has done in past budgets simply because of its renowned self-sufficiency and because it is heading towards becoming the nation's next $100b industry.
Meanwhile, Federal Labor is expected to announce on Thursday that it will commit another $3.25b to Victorian Labor's trouble-plagued North East Link road project, which has already blow out by more than $10b.
And so it goes.
