Grain farmers should start to understand their cash flow despite reports of optimism for grain and oilseed producers following heavy rains across Victoria.
According to ANZ's latest Agri Commodity Report, a mix of summer rainfall across many cropping regions and growing La Nina forecasts in 2024 has given a positive outlook for the 2024/25 season despite the total volume dropping.
The 2023/24 season was the sixth-largest national harvest, including all grains, oilseeds and pulses, despite the volume being around 30 per cent lower than the previous year.
Regarding specific grains or oilseeds, it was the eighth-highest wheat crop, the fifth-highest barley crop and the third-highest canola crop.
In Victoria, cropping volumes dropped by about six per cent which was a tiny drop compared to volume drops in Queensland and WA, which went dropped by 45 per cent.
The amount of cropping acerage in Victoria remained the same, once again doing better than all states, which all saw drops.
ANZ Food, Beverage and Agribusiness Insights head Michael Whitehead, said despite the drops in volume and acerage across the nation, croppers still had good cause for optimism.
"You could say the whole of Australia's cropping region by and large came off optimal conditions down to very good conditions," Mr Whitehead said.
"The glass went from 90 per cent full to 75 per cent full,
"Victoria's drop less being than every other state in terms of its production compared to its acreage I think says that Victoria's pasture conditions were very good compared to the rest of Australia.
Victoria had made up an average of 17 per cent of national winter crop production over the last decade, but Mr Whitehead said that had increased to 22 per cent.
"In making up nearly a quarter of nation's grain, and looking at everything from feed, to exporting to manufacturing, it shows how important Victoria is becoming relative to Australia's grain crop."
The report aligns with forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences showing the national crop could rise by about nine per cent, based on overall trend growth in the past three decades.
Planfarm Advisory business adviser Dan Toohey said optimism was present among his clients, with recent meetings focusing on farmers "pulling the correct levers".
"Even though we're very close to planting, [many farmers] want clarity around a financial position and what the potential is for this coming season before they go full noise into their program," he said.
He said more rain throughout Victoria has been fantastic for broadacre cropping, even though it has presented some challenges for those who want to dry sow.
But overall, many of his clients were feeling positive ahead of the start of their harvest.
"[The rain] has been incredibly important for those northern broadacre cropping businesses if they have been meticulous with their weed management and fallow over the last summer months," he said.
"There's potential for some protection of some of that early subsoil moisture we got in the harvest of 2023 before we had a couple of months of dry weather.
"Hopefully as the season progresses, they join the dots of that moisture profile and preserved it."
The ANZ report showed that the national crop mix was consistently changing as farmers chased forecasted optimum levels of pricing and demand.
Mr Toohey said farmers were becoming more flexible with annual plantings than ever before.
"Over the last three months since harvest finished there's been a lot of planning out the year ahead and trying to understand a financial impact, beyond a paddock level," he said.
"This means making sure that if there are changes that do get put in place on-farm, they are still going to fulfil the needs of the business around its financial commitments."
