Beef producer calls for an overhaul of the state's industry for fair prices

The Bairnsdale grazier and his partner Nicole manage 160 Angus breeding cows on about 320 hectares, with no plans of destocking.

But a recent Meat & Livestock Australia survey, which had more than 3700 participants, showed nearly half of surveyed Victorian producers will have fewer cattle in their herds within 12 months due to dry seasons and price volatility.

MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said it was important to note the survey was in November and December, 2023, and there had been seasonal and market improvement since.

"Towards the end of last year, much of the country experienced a return to better weather conditions following a volatile 2023," he said.

"Nearly a third of respondents said that they expected cattle prices to increase, and a similar amount expected favourable conditions as key reasons to increasing their herd."

Mr White said he decided to take a look at the Bureau of Meteorology's weather announcements and long-term forecasts, compared with the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator across the past 12 months.

He said there was a strong correlation between the two.

"We got caught out badly because, after the March calf sales [in 2023], I thought it was going to kick again and correct itself upwards," he said.

"We rebuilt our herd, everyone kept heifers for two years and everyone was hoping to cash in a bit in that financial year.

"The opportunity was stripped away because we zapped all confidence out of the markets."

The Bureau's 2022-23 annual report estimated it contributed $132 million in economic value to Australia's agriculture sector in the past financial year, through its "delivery of initiatives".

The cited initiatives included Forewarned is Forearmed, Climate Services for Agriculture and Agri-Climate Outlooks.

Mr White said this estimated contribution led to him submitting a freedom of information request to better understand how they found the estimate.

The Bureau's response said it used information including a 2014 Centre for International Economics' report, which included seasonal, long-range forecasts contributed 7.31pc of total gross value added to the sector.

"According to DAFF (Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry), in 2022-23, the value of Australian agricultural production was $94 billion," the Bureau's email said.

"The Bureau calculated its estimated contribution at $132m, which represents 0.14pc of the total value - a very conservative estimate."

It also said studies suggested calculating the value of weather and climate information for agriculture was "complex" and the Bureau would continue to explore the best assessment for its contribution.

Mr White then figured out his cost of production per head, including land, bulls, fodder, health, seed, insurance, rates, fuel, freight and sundries.

"It's a bit confronting for [farmers], a lot of people don't tend to go into that detail," he said.

"Based on our costs of operation, every weaner calf we produce owes us well and truly over $1000 a head, and that's without our labour."

In the MLA's latest report for Victoria on Wednesday, March 27, and the Online Young Cattle Indicator, weaner cattle made an average of 339 cents a kilogram, 76.21c/kg lower than the same time in 2023.

"I'm wondering if there's something fundamentally wrong with red meat production in Australia," Mr White said.

"We have to find a way, as an industry, to take volatility out."

Fifty-four per cent of the MLA surveyed Victorian beef producers said volatility in cattle prices were reason to have fewer cattle in their herd within the next 12 months.

This number increased to 68pc of surveyed producers in Tasmania.

Mr White said farmers "needed the MLA more than ever" to find markets for their premium product and better pay.

He said if farmers were unable to make a liveable wage, they would fail to make conscious choices to lower emission intensity.

"It's survival first," he said.

"There's some bloody smart people in this industry, let's get our heads together and work out what we can do."