Why these Wulgumerang graziers sold their cattle in autumn instead of spring

It follows a downturn in the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator which sits at 581 cents a kilogram carcase weight, down from its peak of 680c/kg in February, or a loss of 15pc.

Global Agritrends managing director Simon Quilty said this year would be a case of "three steps forwards, two steps back" with a minor rally in prices predicted in or around September.

"Next year, I expect prices to jump substantially in the vicinity of 40-45pc year-on-year by Q4 of 2025," he said.

Mr Quilty said the decline in the EYCI was driven by an oversupply of cattle from last year and dry seasonal conditions across much of eastern Australia.

"The expectation is a dry autumn and people are looking to offload cattle at the moment, and in southern Australia a dry autumn and winter points to people moving livestock today as opposed to waiting," he said.

The forecast rally in 2025 will hinge on Victoria, NSW, South Australia and Western Australia moving from a liquidation phase of the cattle herd to a rebuilding phase, which experts predict could happen as soon as mid-2024.

"A liquidation means more female cattle are killed than retained, whereas a rebuild is when those cattle are retained to reproduce," Mr Quilty said.

"It will tighten supply because more females will be retained, and over the following two to three years we will see tighter supplies as females are held back due to favourable conditions.

"The rebuilding phase will combine with an increase in global demand and tightness, not only in South America and the US, but also here in Australia."

In the domestic scene, some Victorian saleyards reported a slide in cattle prices by as much as $200-$300 week-on-week last week.

High country graziers Janine and Chris Cooper, Wulgulmerang, were among the dozen-odd feature vendors at Bairnsdale's fortnightly store cattle sale on Friday, opting to sell their cattle several months earlier than usual.

Agents at the sale reported price declines of between $150-$300 compared to sales in the first week of March.

"We sold our cattle due to the dry seasonal conditions and lack of pasture," Ms Cooper, a born-and-bred Wulgulmerang resident, said.

Our season has been very very good, but all of a sudden it's now drying off disappearing.

"It's not unusual for this time of the year, but we desperately rely on an early-autumn rain so we have feed heading into winter and we've not had much rain at all this year."

The Coopers run 250-300 Hereford breeders and in the past sold their cattle at Bairnsdale in early-spring.

Ms Cooper said her draft of 65 steers averaged $1307 a head and sold to a top price of $1300 last week.

"I think we were very lucky," she said.