Table grapes continue hort export charge

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' (ABARES) Agricultural Commodities Outlook Report for the March quarter 2024, released today, has repeatedly referred to the continued healthy rise of the table grape industry.

While ABARES reported average nominal export prices are forecast to fall in 2023-24 as world supply rises at a faster rate than demand, it highlighted table grapes as the exception.

"In contrast, nominal table grape prices are expected to increase in 2023-24 due to a fall in world supply," the report said.

"Table grape export prices are forecast to rise further in 2024-25 due to continued growth in world demand."

While it didn't provide specific figures for table grapes, the 2022/23 Australian Horticulture Statistics Handbook put the sector's fresh export value at $557.3 million.

The ABARES report acknowledged the increased planting of table grape varieties popular in key export markets, notably in China, has helped drive growth.

Added to this were some favourable world factors.

"In 2023-24, Australia is expected to face reduced competition exporting table grapes to the Asian market," ABARES said.

"US crops were significantly damaged by Hurricane Hilary in August 2023.

"Accordingly, Brazil and Peru, which are typically key competitors with Australia in the counter-seasonal supply of table grapes to Asian markets, have diverted early season fruit to the US."

Dragging down horticulture's export potential were tree nuts with nominal macadamia export prices expected to fall below $8 per kg (kernel weight equivalent) in 2023-24, the lowest price since 2009-10, while nominal almond prices are expected to fall for the same period due to high world supply.

"In 2023-24, increasing fruit export values will be partially offset by a 21 per cent decline in nominal nut export values to $948 million, due to falling export values of almonds and macadamias," ABARES said.

The Almond Board of Australia is somewhat more optimistic than ABARES however, with a January statement saying 112,096 tonnes of almonds were shipped at the end of November, with export sales up 8 per cent on the same time as the previous year.

It also said domestic sales were up 5pc, and estimates for this year's harvest predicted 164,700 tonnes would be produced, about 60pc higher than 2023.

In its latest industry update, Australian Macadamia Society chief executive officer Clare Hamilton-Bate said 2024 was looking like a better season, with good conditions experienced during flowering, and more positive grower sentiment across growing regions.

"While recent rainfall in some regions will make the start of harvest a little challenging, with good growing conditions we expect to see an improvement in kernel recoveries, which is very encouraging," she said.

The 2024 Australian macadamia crop is predicted to reach 56,000 tonnes in-shell at 3.5pc moisture (60,000 tonnes in-shell at 10pc moisture), a 16pc increase on last year's crop.

DESPITE a forecast record $17.8 million lift in the value of Australian horticulture production in 2024-25, the ABARES report was tempered with cautions about ongoing pressures to the sector.

"Relatively higher energy, labour, fertiliser, and freight costs in 2023-24 and falling domestic fruit and vegetable prices are squeezing producer margins," the report said.

"In the short-term producers are expected to maintain production volumes due to the costs and risks involved with changing production decisions.

"However, over the medium term a persistent reduction in farm profits may lead to greater industry consolidation."

Overall the ABARES report said the value of horticultural exports would rise by 11 per cent to $4 billion in 2024-25, while production volumes would increase in 2024-25, driven by more favourable seasonal conditions.

It listed increased water availability as a key determining factor to increased production volumes.

Nominal fruit export values are expected to increase by 28pc in 2023-24 to $1.8 billion and by 12pc in 2024-25 to $2 billion.

IN what has become something of a tradition for ABARES in forecasting horticulture, it warned of the severe impact extreme weather systems could have on the proposed figures.

"Over the outlook to 2028-29, in the alternative scenario, assumed La Nina conditions in three of the four outlook years, could lead to lower world supply of fruit and nuts," it said.

"Harvest in the northern hemisphere could be impacted by persistent drought, and harvest in the southern hemisphere could be impacted by excessive rain."

For the 2024-25, ABARES said horticulture production volumes are expected to increase.

"This is expected to be driven by water availability remaining high and assumed neutral climatic conditions supporting crop growth," it said.

"Neutral climatic conditions are also expected to reduce the risk of pests and diseases that can present in wet climates, which will reduce management costs for producers."