Victorian and national milk production figures bounce back on last November

Dairy Australia figures show a national increase of 6.3 per cent in November 2023, when compared with the same time in 2022.

There's also been a 2.1pc production jump, nationally, for the first five months of the financial year.

NSW saw the biggest year-on-year increase of 8.8pc.

Gippsland saw the biggest production jump, up 6.7pc, or 13,296 million litres, compared with 2022, and 3.8pc for the financial year to date

Northern Victorian production was up 7.2pc on the same time last year and 0.8pc since July 1.

Production in the west rose by 6.1pc on November 2022, but has dipped 0.9pc for the first five months of the milk season.

DA Economics, Data and Insights head John Droppert said the numbers were "good.

"A key driver of that is the shocker we had last spring," Mr Droppert said.

"To give that some context, we reported 870 million litres of milk for November against 819ML last year, but 907ML in 2021/22 and above 870ML for every other year back to the 1990s.

"Nationally, we lost just over 150ML through October and November last year, and this year we've picked up nearly half of that (69ML)."

He said it was definitely a positive sign, driven by much improved weather, cautious optimism from farmers and excellent profitability for successive seasons.

"However, in milk volume terms, it's not enough to offset the longer term challenges of essentially fewer cows and slow productivity growth (plus short term labour constraints)," he said.

Farmers said they felt the rise in production resulted from better feed quality and good seasonal conditions.

Bruce Glasgow, Derryvale Dairy, Bena, has a 300 cow herd and said the increase in Gippsland was all down to seasonal conditions, after a "rotten" spring, last year.

"For the year to date, we have probably been up about 10 per cent, and I assume I am not alone there," he said.

"That's probably compensating for the ones that got out of the industry," Mr Glasgow said.

Mr Glasgow said rain at the right time and a mild winter, followed by a "six month spring" had set the region up for greater production.

He said the property received 65 millimetres of rain in the latest event.

"That will get us to February before any supplementary feeding starts - we were probably on a third supplementary feeds, this time last year," he said.

"You have money in the bank, with hay in the shed," he said.

Tongala's Andrew Tyler said a large percentage of the drop in production last year was in response to feed quality, especially of conserved fodder.

"The floods had a dramatic impact on the ability to make fodder, let alone good quality fodder," he said.

"I believe the 7pc drop in production was probably a pretty fair outcome, given the cards we were handed."

He milks 1150 cows and said increased production might also be due to a drop in the sale of cull stock.

"Farmers are not so keen to sell chopper cows, you can make more money milking them - that's decision making that's changed, given beef prices have dropped back so much," he said.

Some later sown summer crops had been affected by the recent rain, but overall most were looking "pretty reasonable."

Peter Delahunty, Alvie said the wet winter in 2022 caused problems for pastures.

'We had a dry start to spring, this year, then we had rain from late October and through November, so it's really continued the season on, very well, this year," Mr Delanhunty said.

He agreed in 2022, coming into 2023, wet conditions meant a lot of poorer quality silage.

There had been growing confidence, as prices increased, coupled with farm exits, reducing the milk pool.

'For those left behind, there is greater competition for milk, so there is incentive to fully feed your animals and produce the quality product the factories are all looking for," Mr Delahunty said.

But he said farmers still had to watch costs of fertiliser, fuel and electricity, although the labour market had freed up.

"There was a problem, coming out of COVID, with a lack of workers on farm," he said.

"There is more interest in dairy farms than there has been, in the last few years.

"There was a big swing to beef, but we've seen what's happened to beef prices - there is not the incentive to go out of dairying."