Victorian milk production sees swings and roundabouts in September

In Victoria, production was down 0.2pc on the September 2022 figures and 0.6pc, for the three months since the start of the financial year.

The trend follows on from August, which saw a similar fall in production.

NSW and Queensland saw the biggest increase in production, both up by 7.1pc on September the previous year.

In the case of NSW, year-to-date production has increased by 8.4pc, while in Queensland it's up by 7.5pc.

WA was another big improver - up 5.8pc on 12 months ago and 4.6pc for the current year.

In Victoria there was a big improvement in production in Gippsland - up by 2,969,000 litres or 1.6pc compared with September 2022 and 4pc for the year-to-date.

But it was offset by a sharp fall in production in the west of the state.

In the north, there was a marginal increase of 0.4pc on September last year, but production fell 1.2pc for the three months since the season opened.

Western Victoria saw the biggest decline, 2.5pc or 4,771,000 litres compared with September 2022, and a drop of 4pc since July 1.

Dairy Australia industry analyst Eliza Redfern said production growth in many regions, so far this season, was based on recovery from last year's very wet conditions.

"During that time there was flooding, waterlogged paddocks and significant disruption to farming operations," Ms Redfern said.

"Fertiliser and other input costs were also up this time last year and farmers were mitigating their use accordingly."

She said in western Victoria, there was some delayed recovery in production volumes.

"Weather conditions have been variable, with areas along the coast being wet and others more inland reporting drier conditions," she said.

"There may also be an element of farm exits involved as well."

Global Insights managing director Steve Spencer, said there wasn't much positive recovery to be read into the figures.

"It's still a great struggle out there, despite the high milk prices," Mr Spencer said.

"I'd say they are very disappointing Victorian numbers, given this time last year the output was down 6-7pc, both in state and national figures, with the wet weather that flattened milk through spring and most of summer."

He said weather had again stunted output and probably pushed back the production peak.

"We've probably seen more than a few cows retired in the process," he said.

"The northern regions are only growing part of what they lost a year ago.

"October might be a bit better than this but it is hard to say what is yield gain (per cow) against loss of cow numbers through that awful time a year ago."

Bernie Free, Winslow, said he was surprised by the latest figures.

"I thought we would have been running alright in western Victoria, but it was reasonably wet and cold," he said.

A "reasonable increase" on the national figures was expected, as this time last year extensive flooding hit many dairying areas.

He said he wasn't "really confident" as to whether or not the continued decline in western Victoria was due to dairy exits, or not.

"I know costs are still eating into profits, you have got supposedly the second highest milk price ever, but costs are just eating into everything,"

"I presume people are looking at that and saying is it really worth chasing that extra bit of milk."

He said he didn't believe there was enough incentive for the milk pool to continue to grow.

'We have got to get it to stablise, that's the first challenge in Victoria, a few good profitable years for everybody will make a difference on people deciding whether they want to stay or exit the industry."

Dairy Farmers Victoria president Mark Billing, Colac, said he didn't know why the numbers had dropped in Victoria.

Wet and cold conditions had an impact on pasture production, but September was very dry.

"It will be interesting to see the next quarter, and see how that comes in," he said.

"I think there is a little bit of herd number reduction, as well, I haven't seen cull numbers, but I think labour is still having a fair impact - I think people are milking less cows and doing what they can do to manage the labour issue.'

Production was down in the north, last year - "we have had a pretty good spring, to this point, but my feeling is we only need a couple of weeks of warm, dry weather and things are going to turn really quickly, especially in the south-west," he said.

"The weather is going to have a significant impact on milk volumes, this year."