Kaniva, Neuarpurr and Horsham growers report above-average crops

Brippick cropping manager Tara Hindson, Neuarpurr, said their main crops of beans and wheat were performing well after a wet June.

"Our June was really wet, the crops were pretty slow to get going but they're looking pretty good, it would be good to get another rain just to top them off," she said.

"We had 12 millimetres [two weeks ago] which kept our plants fresh but with our shallow soils they're starting to stress with the heat."

She said their biggest challenge was the wet June, which recorded 130mm of rain and caused waterlogging, and they had some smaller frosts in past weeks.

Ms Hindson said they started their sowing program at the end of April and start of May, and expected to harvest at their normal time, possibly a week or two earlier.

"The beans look good, the wheat handled the wet pretty well, the canola is a bit varied," she said.

"We have had little frosts the past weeks but our wheat has flowered so it might've gotten past the bad period."

A Rabobank Australian Winter Crop forecast expected Victoria to be the only state with a winter crop production rise this year, by about eight per cent from 2022.

RaboResearch associate analyst Edward McGeoch said it was primarily due to floods causing harvest losses last year in northern parts of the state.

He said he expected dry conditions to push local prices above global prices on a "positive basis" for wheat and barley, and canola prices should also be supported by global export demand.

"Parts of Victoria have seen further strong rainfall across cropping regions in early October which will play a significant role in determining if these targets will be achieved or exceeded," he said.

Western Ag agronomist James Jess said crops in the Golden Plains Shire and surrounds also looked promising after a dry September.

"We had a dry September but we had 25mm of rain in a lot of places around the Skipton, Derrinallum area, things are travelling nicely," he said.

"Lara is dry, Cressy is drier, outside those areas is going quite well."

He said he expected growers to start their harvesting programs as normal, possibly a week earlier, but frosts were the main concern ahead of harvest.

"I think it will start in the next three weeks, Cressy, Werneth, Lara area then Derrinallum in the second week of November," he said.

"We can't afford to get a frosty day, it would be pretty damaging."

Sam Eastwood, Eastwood Family Farms, Kaniva, said they expected to start harvesting earlier than their normal program.

He said canola and wheat were a stand-out in their standard rotation of bread wheat, durum, canola, lentils, vetch, oat and hay.

Mr Eastwood said his wheat crop could be a standout, after a wet winter period with waterlogging and stress.

"We've had a short flowering period for canola this year but wheat is looking pretty excellent," he said.

"The dry spring up until this point has been good because it's allowed for paddocks to dry out, crops to grow away from the wet.

"I'd say there'll be a [canola] load in at GrainCorp by the end of the month or start of November, it'll come from north of Kaniva where the season finishes earlier."

Mr Eastwood said they hoped for more rain to put them in good stead for harvest.

He said they started their sowing program in mid-April, but had roadblocks during May with a significant rain event.

"We had a definitive rain event of about 40 or 50 millimetres and it sealed the end of our seeding window," he said.

"It might've been the worst kind of seeding for 20 or 30 years, it was unseasonably wet."

He said he was interested to see how crops finished in the Wimmera.

"There were a lot of underdone crops as far as nitrogen goes, or it was put on late because of urea shortages," he said.

"The yields will be pulled back anyway with a dry finish, while we couldn't get as much as we wanted on early, it might not be as big of an effect to yields.

"We don't have bean crops in this year but the reports I've been getting from friends is that their bean crops are looking fantastic."

Meanwhile, grains grower Tim Rethus, Rethus Farming, Horsham, has wheat, canola, beans, oat, hay, lentils and chickpeas, with clover for soil fertility to prepare for next season's wheat crop.

"We're almost as good as the Kaniva district this year," he said.

"I think what's been interesting is the dire prediction we've had all year, hasn't eventuated until now."

He said they hadn't had any significant rain since mid-late August, and had survived on a then-full soil moisture profile.

"Based on all the soil probes we've got, it's been drawing down rapidly," Mr Rethus said.

"With the warm conditions, the soil can hold 150 to 200mm of water, and it's using three to five on those hot days, so it's very quickly chewing it up.

"We had a bean paddock that went from 85mm down to about 12mm over September."

He said his canola and wheat could be his above-average crops.

"Wheat has looked exceptional this year, I'm very pleased with how that's gone," he said.

"Canola was hard to get established with pest problems, but it will probably be a standout, it's been filling while there has been moisture and I'm confident canola will go well."

He said he faced pest challenges in his lentils.

"Our lentils were essentially a disaster this year, the pest problems were horrible, the slugs and mice had a field day and it's been quite challenging," he said.

"We were concentrating on our canola and didn't think lentils would be an issue, and when we found out it was too late.

"It just means we'll have a better crop next year."

Mr Rethus said the hay season had progressed well, with relatively-dry conditions and it would be promising for export.

"Normally you don't get good hay and good crops, so we're running the line where our hay is average-to-good quality and our grain will be average, maybe good quality," he said.

He said he hoped the El Nino would be broken by next year and conditions would return to the region's "average".

"We nearly always start around November 20, but if it's a really dry finish we could go earlier, but I'd say it's trending normally at the moment.

"The roadsides are still green."