NEAR ideal timed rainfall across northern and eastern Victoria and the Riverina has helped firm up grain production prospects and raises the prospects of a solid bank of grain available for use by northern domestic customers.
After Australia's driest September on record short-term weather patterns changed dramatically in October, with a significant rain band depositing heavy falls in a line roughly following the Murray River before sitting over the Victorian High Country and Gippsland, where some centres recorded their highest 24 rainfall tallies on record.
The heavy totals were even more anomalous in the context of the current El Nino weather pattern, correlated with drier than average conditions.
There was over 150mm in elevated parts of Gippsland but from a grains perspective it was falls of 30-100mm along the Murray Valley and the Riverina that will be of most importance.
North-eastern Victorian farmer Nathan Lawless, who farms at Burramine, near Yarrawonga, had over 90mm which he said will allow crops to reach their potential.
"It is not so much boosting yields as it is the crops we thought had 5 tonne to the hectare potential a couple of months ago have a good chance of reaching that mark rather than dropping back to something like 3t/ha if it was a dry finish," he said.
The rain did not cause any significant waterlogging issues in his area.
"It had dried up enough on top and a lot of our problems here are caused more from water running in from elsewhere and luckily enough the falls were just a little lighter in those catchments, we would not have wanted much more but it will not be an issue."
He said the rain tapered off to the north but was still a significant boost right up into the central Riverina.
"They have already lost yield due to the dry in parts getting up towards Narrandera but this will help lock in a harvest, it is probably better as you head south closer to the Murray but they are looking a lot better than a week ago. "
In the Mallee Simon Craig, who farms at Kooloonong, between Mildura and Swan Hill, registered 46mm.
He said the rain was very significant in terms of ensuring there was sufficient moisture for crops to finish.
"In an absolute perfect world the rain a fortnight ago would've done the most good, but this is not far behind, it will help bolster later crops, such as chickpeas and maybe wheat and will help boost grain size in other crops which will be good not only for quality but will also help push yield up somewhat," he said.
"The flat ground will benefit the most, some of the sandier hills have already gone off but this has really set up what looks to be a good year throughout the Mallee."
"Across the region things are generally very good, in the Millewa there are reports it has never been better, there are a couple of areas in other parts of the region where it was getting quite dry prior to the rain but by and large for a low rainfall zone cropping region in what was meant to be a dry year you have to be happy."
"We may run into a couple of issues with paddock access at harvest in certain areas, such as where we see seepages out the side of sandhills but that is something we will manage."
On a macro level analyst Lloyd George, AgScientia, said the rain would put talks of intracontinental shipments of grain from Western Australia to service the northern domestic grain market on hold.
"Overall south-eastern Australia, across parts of South Australia, Victoria and southern NSW is quite good," he said.
"There will be grain available, a lot will depend on international competition as to how much the domestic buyers have to pay to get their hands on it."
"Further north there will be some wheat produced in Queensland but if it makes those APH (Australian Prime Hard) specifications it will most likely be more valuable to export so the end users will look to the APW quality from further south, while trying to keep their freight costs as low as possible."
He said the rain would stabilise national crop production estimates.
"Forecasters have been taking little bits off for every period it has been dry and warm, this will mean not so much a kick up in production outlooks but a stabilisation of what is there."