Quilty and Herrmann say red meat prices will soar in 2027

Feeder steers are tipped to reach 670 cents a kilogram carcase weight by 2027, while heavy lambs could soar to 1000c/kg, according to Global Agritrends managing director Simon Quilty and Nutrien and Mecardo market analyst Robert Herrmann.

The optimistic outlook was made during the Gippsland Red Meat Conference in Sale on Tuesday where people were told the 12-month cycle for both markets would be "sluggish" and "flat", but the long-term prediction was "motivation for graziers".

The unprecedented prices are a long way from their current levels of 286c/kg and 483c/kg, respectively.

Mr Quilty said red meat prices had fallen for several reasons, but were driven by a lack of labour at processing plants across the country.

"Why in particular feeder steers are likely to rebound so quickly is because the US is about grain-fed product and 90 per cent of all product in America is grain-fed," Mr Quilty told the 260 people at the conference.

"Australia and the US dominate both Japan and Korea in terms of market share, somewhere between 85-90pc of imports.

"Therefore, when the US retracts and supply tightens, it's not just the US market that we're going to be the beneficiary of, it's all the other competing markets and in particular the grain-fed market."

The conference heard the outlook considered four stages: the fall, the holding pattern, the rise and the top, and was developed by cross-referencing data from previous peaks and troughs in the US and Australia.

"We're venturing into the period of the holding period and I think prices will be sluggish across both sectors," Mr Quilty said.

"It's the rise that is the most interesting and important because by the time we get to 2026 and 2027, I expect cattle and sheep prices to be double what they are today.

"That is because of global tightness in protein, but in particular North America."

Mr Herrmann said graziers would not witness "radical change" in sheep and cattle prices before the end of 2024 and forecast prices would remain unchanged for the next 12 months.

"In agriculture, you need to look at the long-term, especially in livestock because you can't be making monthly decisions whether you're in or you're out as a producer," he said.

It follows a warning by Victoria's chief veterinary officer Graeme Cooke in Bendigo last week who said the state had an "unprecedented risk" and "the perfect storm" for an emergency animal disease outbreak within five years.

Mr Herrmann labelled Dr Cooke's warning a serious concern and said strengthening biosecurity was one of the most important priorities for the industry.

"There would be an argument to say because we don't have eID across all states for sheep and goats, we might not be as well prepared as we should be," he said.

"Anything that happens is always going to be bad, but if it happens sooner rather than later it's going to be worse.

"Hopefully it never happens, but the preparation to try and keep these incursions out by being able to deal with them as efficiently and as quickly as possible will have a big impact on our markets."