US beef holds its breath in wake of mad cow case

Experienced meat trade analysts say reactions are generally immediate.

The case of atypical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, the neurologic disease of cattle known as mad cow, was detected in a beef animal at a slaughter plant in South Carolina last week.

All eyes are on China, the world's largest buyer of beef, but Global Agritrends analyst Simon Quilty said trade agreements were in place between the two economic superpowers that prevent a ban on US beef imports in the event of an atypical case of BSE.

Atypical cases are believed to occur spontaneously in all cattle populations at very low rates and do not impact official BSE risk status with the World Organisation for Animal Health.

It is in fact the seventh case in the US, with only one being the classical version of the disease and that case, in 2003, devastated the US beef trade with widespread bans on trade.

The last US atypical case was in Florida in 2018.

Since then, the world's biggest beef exporter, Brazil, has recorded three atypical cases and that shut down its trade with China - in one case for more than a hundred days.

The last Brazilian case, in January this year, saw an immediate self-imposed halt to shipments to China which lasted 30 days, reportedly at a cost of $25 million a day to Brazil's beef industry.

The latest USDA rankings of beef export volumes shows Brazil is king, supplying 23.5 per cent of beef exports in 2020. Australia was second, at 13.6pc and the US third at 12.4pc.

The US is a key competitor for Australian beef, particularly in high-end, lucrative markets like China and Japan. It also happens to be an important customer for Australian beef.

The 2003 US case is widely regarded as having provided a massive boon to Australian beef, and already beef industry people in Australia are saying this latest case will only further cement Australia's very valuable reputation as being disease-free.

Mr Quilty said the 2003 case boosted Australian beef exports into high-end markets like Japan for more than eight years.

He said the big threat to US beef exporters with regards to the latest case would be ramifications from China, however under the deal brokered in 2020 known as the US-China Economic and Trade Agreement Phase One, China can not introduce a ban on US beef due to an atypical BSE case.

That deal provided the US suppliers of beef, pork and poultry, and live breeding cattle, with significantly expanded access to China's fast-growing market.

"That is in complete contrast to the situation with Brazil, where any BSE case requires an immediate self-imposed ban," Mr Quilty said.

"Those bans in recent years have had serious negative implications for Brazil."

China lifted the latest BSE-related ban lifted in March this year, and at the same time granted approval to six new Brazilian plants to supply its market.

Analysts at the time said that was a strong sign of how much China needs Brazilian beef.

While US cattle supplies are forecast to tighten later this year and into 2024, Mr Quilty said the nation still had big volumes available for export at the moment.

"And the US is our number one competitor globally," he said.

The fact the US worked quickly to address the issue and inform its customers of the case had certainly been to its benefit, he said.

The USDA said the animal never entered slaughter channels and at no time presented a risk to the food supply or to human health in the US.

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