A shift towards tighter supply has combined nicely with improved buyer demand on the back of rain to turn around the young cattle market's decline.
The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator's u-turn saw it lift 17 cents a kilogram carcase weight over the past week to sit today at 686c. That still puts it 406c behind the year-ago value.
With yardings traditionally tighter during April and May, the feeling is the lift should at least stabalise, if not continue at a gentle pace.
Further into the year, however, the pressure on traders who paid big dollars for weaners last year is likely to place downward pressure on the market.
Agents are reporting losses as high as $700 a head on some of those cattle.
That will be added to the mix of labour shortages in abattoirs containing capacity to process, and thus demand for finished cattle, and growing supply from a rebuilt herd.
Year-on-year, total yardings for the first quarter of 2023 have increased by four per cent.
Predictions of an EYCI in vicinity of 640c by the end of the year are looking more likely.
ALSO IN BEEF:
While many of the national indicators, including feeder steers and processor cows, showed some welcome upward movement over the past week, the price for heavy steers continued to ease.
Meat & Livestock Australia senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson said such heavy steer prices had not been seen since May 2020. They now sit below the 10-year average.
MLA is forecasting cattle slaughter to fall by 12pc during April, pointing out it will be the shortest April working month since 2017.
Mr Atkinson said a direct impact of lower kill rates in April would typically be lower beef exports, however it was expected higher carcase weights may offset the fall in slaughter numbers through April and keep production relatively buoyant.
Mecardo's Adrian Ladiniwskyj said if the April-May lower yarding pattern holds, reduced downward pressure on prices may lend some temporary stability to the market until more confidence in the El Nino and pastoral situation emerges.
NSW agent Glen Curry, Harold Curry at Tenterfield, said there were signs of tightening supply, with big numbers of weaners already sold over the past month.
Buying demand was a bit stronger courtesy of the rain in Queensland, he said.
The typical numbers were going south, he said.
"Generally speaking, the fat job has come right off and the feeder job is tough, which is putting pressure on the store job," Mr Curry said.
"Traders are still trying to ascertain what their losses will be on weaners bought last year. They are prepared to take a hit but obviously they have to come back in at a much lower rate."