Average farm sales have broken through the $1 million barrier for first time

But the extraordinary growth in rural land prices right across Australia may slow next year, according to several agency forecasts.

Slow but not fall, they insist.

Elders property analysts have crunched the incredible sales data from this year to find the median sale price for rural property is now $1,031,220, a rise of 18.5 per cent over the year.

Elders' Matt Ough said the number of smaller lifestyle properties sold has slowed (down 30pc for the past year) while bigger sized farms selling for above $20 million rose 65.4pc between July 2021 and June this year.

This rise was driven by large pastoral holdings, in particular beef properties in Queensland, NSW and the Northern Territory.

The number of sales nationally above $20 million is triple the the amount of five years ago.

But while one real estate agency is charting the growth of farm sales, another has sounded a note of caution for 2023.

Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said one of the main drivers for the record farm sales, booming commodity prices, might come off the boil next year.

Ms Conisbee said flooding impacts and rising production in other countries will likely "pull back prices".

"Overall agricultural production value is likely to remain at historically high levels but will be lower than those experienced in 2021/22 and this will impact farm values," she said.

Rising interest rates will also start to bite, restricting the amount people can borrow.

"This is across all of Australia and all property types," Ms Conisbee said.

"2023 will still be a good year for regional Australia. However as we come off record agricultural production, wrestle with rising interest rates and start to get back to our pre-pandemic lives, it will be a much slower year for property price growth."

MORE READING: We're busy harvesting now, but selling the farm after.

Elders analysts agree the growth in prices being paid per hectare will slow due to higher interest rates.

Its research found over the past five years, the number of sales in the $10 to 15 million range rose 26.3pc and in the $15 to 20 million range by 21.7pc per year.

Again examining the fall in the numbers of lifestyle or hobby farms sold, Elders found the number of transactions less than $1 million have shrunk by 10.3 pc per year over the past five years.

The volume of smaller deals less than $1 million declined by -30.1pc for the year to June 2022. A large part of this decline was down to fewer transactions in the lifestyle segment of the market between 30-50ha and 50-100ha.

"The decline in transaction volume in these parcel size ranges wasn't confined to any one state, which suggests it could be part of a wider trend whereby supply has dried up in 2022," the research found.

Elders said at the top end of the market, the driving factors behind selling large cattle stations or large pastoral land in general has been clear since 2020, as rainfall and livestock prices both increased.

"For sellers, their land asset experienced growth in price not seen in years, offering a ripe opportunity to exit," Elders' Mr Ough said.

"From a buyer's perspective, the financial returns of their properties improved, and the prospect of future returns has been strengthened."

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