THE AUSTRALIAN pulse industry is warning of markedly lower production across all major dryland legume crops this year as the big wet takes its toll.
However, in somewhat of a silver lining the total wipeout of the national pulse crop some insiders feared is unlikely to eventuate with some patches of reasonable crop, especially lentils, having passed through the sodden conditions without losing significant yield potential, although there are concerns surrounding quality.
The rationale for the big drop off in pulse production is varied.
Australia's major pulse crops, chickpeas, lentils and faba beans all have origins in the semi-arid Middle Eastern region and none of them tolerates excessively wet conditions for long.
In the northern chickpea production zone there was never a chance of a big crop with farmers reacting to a wet start to the winter cropping period and relatively bearish market signals by cutting plantings.
"There was a big drop in chickpea plantings in this part of the world," said Grain Producers Australia northern director Matthew Madden.
"People did not throw away rotations altogether but they certainly opted into other crops where possible," Mr Madden said.
"It has proved to be a reasonable move as those chickpeas that have been planted have really struggled with both waterlogging and disease," he said.
It was a different situation in the lentil belt of north-west Victoria and South Australia where lentils have been the star of the class in terms of gross margins in recent years with good yields and high prices.
"There was a big lentil plant this year, especially through the Mallee where canola is not as popular, with farmers looking at the good results in recent years," said Birchip Cropping Group senior research manager James Murray.
However, he said unprecedented spring rain had meant crops in the normally semi-arid Mallee region, had suffered damage from excessive moisture.
"It's fairly hit and miss some crops still look OK but others aren't faring all that well," Mr Murray said.
"I would estimate through the southern Mallee and northern Wimmera we've seen 40 per cent crop damage, it's substantial but there are also patches that have hung on OK," he said.
"The differences have been very soil type dependent, those that can hold water and didn't have pooling on the top are looking much better and we could have some really high yielding patches of crop in these paddocks."
"Farmers that have grown lentils on better paddocks, that have had good gypsum histories and have better water holding capacity are holding up best, but where people have pushed the envelope and planted lentils on poorer soils they have generally been hard hit."
"The boundaries have been pushed in the last couple of years in terms of rotations and soil types to try and get more lentils in and this year we've probably seen that backfire, but yield potential varies enormously, even within one paddock according to soil type."
Across the border in South Australia, Will Alexander, Australian Grain Exports pulse trader, said the industry was largely still assessing potential damage.
"We're starting to see some early lentils come off in the Upper Eyre Peninsula and they seem to be fine but we'll have to see what the impact of recent rain has been in other areas," Mr Alexander said.
"Overall we would not expect the crop to be as damaged as what has happened in Victoria but we'll know more when people get back out into paddocks after it dries up," he said.
Mr Murray said farmers were hoping the good areas could compensate for lost hectares.
"It has been a little surprising just how good the good areas look, but equally where crops have been sitting in water there is plenty that is dead already, total tonnages will depend on whether there is a little bit more good stuff than we thought or whether losses were over a larger area."
Along with the physical waterlogging, Mr Murray said disease had been a major player.
In lentils he said botrytis grey mould (BGM) had done significant damage while he said losses to chocolate spot in faba beans were particularly heavy.
"There is the odd paddock of reasonable fabas in the northern Wimmera depending if people could get on to put out fungicides but reports are that in the southern Wimmera where a lot of beans are grown it has been too wet to spray in a timely manner and crops have been hit really hard."
While BGM is generally more of a threat to lentils in southern Australia it has also been observed in chickpeas this season.
Mr Alexander said the pulse trade was carefully monitoring the situation.
"I wouldn't want to be am exporter needing to put together a big parcel of lentils in a hurry this season," he said.
"Most will be keeping on top of things and making sure they are not caught short if suddenly there is a turn for the worse in terms of production or quality once we really start getting into harvest."
"From a farmer point of view those that are lucky enough to have a harvest will be keeping a close eye on prices as it is possible we could see localised short-term premiums as exporters scramble to get the supplies needed to meet their commitments."
Mr Murray said the disease pressure had presented a massive learning curve to Mallee farmers, who generally crop with low input systems.
"We're seeing up to four fungicides go out in the Mallee, generally it is one pre canopy closure and very occasionally it will be followed up with another," he said.
"Four applications is definitely unprecedented, and people are saying if there was product available and they could get out on the paddock they feel a fifth could be beneficial."
He said varietal choice had been important.
"We've seen certain varieties hit harder with botrytis, so that has also been a factor."