JUNE has been wetter than average for much of southern and eastern Victoria with a return to near average conditions for most of the north-west after four months of below average rainfall.
Much of the rain fell during the second week of the month, with more than 200 mm in the 24 hours to 9am on the 10th at some locations in West Gippsland triggering major flooding in several catchments.
Damaging winds across Victoria brought down trees and unroofed houses.
Power was cut to more than 200,000 people and the Victorian State Emergency Services responded to more than 9000 requests for help.
Overall, days have been warmer than average this June except in the north-east, while nights have been warmer than average across much of the state and in the warmest 10 per cent of records for most of western Victoria and in East Gippsland.
Soil moisture for June remains below average for parts of western Victoria extending into south-east South Australia.
Across the north, soil moisture is mostly close to average, while it is mostly above average for the southern half of the state, east of Warrnambool.
Most of Australia is likely to be wetter than average from July to September with chances above 80pc across much of the interior.
Those high chances extend into parts of northern Victoria, gradually reducing towards the coast where there is no strong indication of a wetter than average three months ahead.
Days are likely to be warmer than average, except for the north-west, while nights are very likely (80pc chance) to be warmer than average for parts of the north and east.
However, July is typically the coldest month of the year in Victoria so keep an eye on the Bureau's frost warnings.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has recently been below the negative IOD threshold and is forecast to remain negative in the coming months.
Sustained values below the negative IOD threshold typically enhance winter-spring rainfall across large parts of southern Australia.
An IOD event is generally declared active once the index exceeds thresholds for at least eight consecutive weeks.
Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) were 64.3pc full, as of June 29.
June rainfall over the MDB is around 80pc above average, its wettest June since 2016.
Storage levels in the South East Coast (Victoria) division are 37.4pc full, roughly the same level they were at this time last year.
