Negative Indian Ocean Dipole event looms

More rainfall is expected across Victoria

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Much of the Mallee region of Victoria is forecast to receive five to 10 mm in the coming week

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MORE rain last week for central western Victoria and south-east South Australia has meant that autumn break rainfall totals have now arrived for most agricultural districts, but the state's north-west is still waiting for some heavier falls this season.

More rainfall is expected across Victoria as a cold front crosses the state on Thursday, with the highest totals forecast for the north-east.

Much of the Mallee is forecast to receive five to 10 mm in the coming week and in some parts has had up to 25 mm for the month to June 22.

When the forecast rain is included, most of the north-west is on track for near average June totals.

Soil moisture is above average for this time of year across many areas of south-eastern Australia from southern Victoria through parts of eastern NSW, extending into southern Queensland.

The rainfall outlook for July-September shows above average rainfall is likely across the northern half of Victoria, tending to a neutral outlook for the south.

The chance of above average July-September rainfall is greater than 80 per cent for much of the Mallee.

The wet outlook for the months ahead is being driven by the increasing chances of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event.

Four of the five international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict a negative Indian Ocean Dipole for the second half of winter and into spring.

The Indian Ocean Dipole index has been below the negative IOD threshold (0.4°C) for five consecutive weeks.

The Bureau declares a negative IOD event when the index remains below the negative thresholds for at least eight weeks. A negative IOD typically brings a wetter than average winter-spring for much of southern Australia.

If the negative IOD pattern doesn't persist long enough to be declared an event, warmer than average sea surface temperatures would typically enhance rainfall across Australia.

Maximum temperatures for July-September are likely to be warmer than average for most of the state and very likely (80pc chance) along the coast, but there is no indication either way for the north-west.

Minimum temperatures may be warmer.

As of June 22, water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin were 62.5pc full, up 20.0pc on the same time last year. Water storage levels in the South East Coast (Victoria) division are 37.0pc full, only 1.3pc higher than 12 months ago.

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