RAIN reached the Mallee region of Victoria on Tuesday, but overall May has been another drier than average month for some parts in the north of the state off the back of a very dry April.
Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies have emerged during autumn in the western part of Victoria and the conditions extend all the way into South Australia.
Root zone soil moisture is very dry for this time of the year across far north-west Victoria and this extends into the eastern parts of South Australia and south-western regions of New South Wales.
Soil moisture for May is below average across most of western and much of northern Victoria tending to above average for parts of the south and east.
The good news is that parts of north-west Victoria are likely to have a wetter than average June.
But at this stage there is no indication that above average rainfall is favoured for July.
Winter rainfall is likely to be above average for much of northern Australia.
But the outlook for the southern stretches of Victoria is neutral, with no strong indication of above or below average rainfall.
Parts of northern Victoria have slightly increased chances of above average rainfall from June to August.
Temperatures are likely to be warmer than usual this winter for most of Victoria with high chances - more than 80pc - that both the maximum and minimum temperatures will be above average for the eastern parts of Victoria.
Following last year's La Nina event, all climate models are indicating the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to remain in a neutral phase for winter and early spring.
But things are looking a bit more interesting for the Indian Ocean.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, but two of five international climate models suggest a negative IOD may develop during winter or spring.
However, model accuracy is lower at this time of the year but improves during winter.
A negative IOD typically brings a wetter winter-spring period for much of southern Australia so the Bureau of Meteorology's climatologists will be keeping a close eye on the Indian Ocean over the coming months.
Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin were 58.3pc full as of May 25, up 19.1pc on the same time last year.
Water storage levels in the South East Coast (Victoria) division are 37.1pc, which is roughly at the same level they were 12 months ago.
