A TROUGH and series of cold fronts brought rainfall over southern and eastern Victoria during the past week, with isolated totals above 100mm for parts of East Gippsland.
Many Victorian sites registered their coldest day of the year so far and maximum temperatures were more than 6°C below average for parts of the east on May 15.
Snow was recorded in parts of the Alpine region.
However, there is not a strong relationship between the timing and amount of early season snowfall and snow depth later in the season.
Following the recent rain, root zone soil moisture is above average across most of Gippsland, between Ballarat and Geelong, and along the south-west coast.
However, May rainfall is tracking below average for the Mallee and much of the Wimmera and soil moisture is very low across the north-west and average to below average for most of northern Victoria for this time of year.
As of May 18, water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin are 57.2pc full, up 18.9pc compared to the same time last year.
Water storage levels in the Southern East Coast (Victoria) division are 37.5pc full, close to where they were 12 months ago.
The average rainfall for winter in Victoria ranges from around 60mm for the far north-west to more than 200mm across much of the south, north-east and East Gippsland, with some exposed sites along the coast and in the Alps typically receiving more than 400mm for the season.
The rainfall outlook for this winter is neutral for most of eastern Australia, including Victoria, with no strong push towards wetter or drier conditions.
The outlook is consistent with current and expected patterns in the Pacific and Indian oceans.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific is expected to remain neutral during winter.
Neutral ENSO has little influence on Australian weather and climate and means other climate drivers, like the Southern Annular Mode, may have a greater influence this winter.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.
Three out of five international models suggest the possibility of negative IOD thresholds being reached in winter or spring.
But the accuracy of IOD forecasts made in Autumn is generally low and starts to improve at the end of May.
Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the state this winter.
