FOLLOWING a very wet first week of February for parts of Victoria, generally dry conditions are likely to continue until this weekend.
The Bureau of Meteorology's one-week rainfall outlook slightly favours above average rainfall for parts of the state as we head towards the end of February and into March.
Summer rainfall is tracking above average for south-west and north-east Victoria, below average for parts of the north-west and close to average in most other areas.
Forecast warmer temperatures this week will likely raise the seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperatures close to the long-term summer averages for most of the state.
The rainfall outlook for autumn shows much of Victoria has slightly increased chances of above average rainfall.
However, In the state's south-east, Central and East Gippsland have a greater chance of above average rainfall, along with the south coast of New South Wales.
Average autumn rainfall totals range from less than 50 mm in the far north-west, to more than 100 mm for much of central Victoria, and more than 200 mm for exposed parts of the coast, elevated sites, and parts of East Gippsland.
Autumn days are likely to be warmer than average around the coast, with no strong push towards warmer or cooler than average maximum temperatures for northern Victoria.
At the same time, nights are likely to be warmer than average across the state, with the highest chances (greater than 80%) across the south.
One of the main climate drivers influencing Australia's weather patterns towards the end of 2020 and early in 2021 has been La Nina.
The current La Nina in the Pacific is past its peak, but is still expected to have an influence on Australia's climate heading into autumn.
Models indicate a return to neutral conditions (neither La Nina nor El Nino) is likely during autumn.
La Nina events typically increase the likelihood of above-average rainfall across eastern and northern Australia during summer and early autumn.
Much of Australia has had above average rainfall so far this summer, however, parts of Queensland are a notable exception, where it has been drier than average.
Sea surface temperatures are warmer than average around much of the coastline and there is an increased risk of a marine heatwave south-east of Tasmania during autumn.
