There is rainfall forecast for Victoria this week, but the second half of November is looking to be drier than average for parts of the south and south east.
However, the summer months from December to February are still likely to be wetter than average for almost the whole of Australia.
There are high chances - more than 80 per cent - of above average summer rainfall over parts of New South Wales and much of Queensland.
In Victoria, this coming summer is likely to bring warmer than average maximum and minimum temperatures.
The main driver for the wet outlook is the La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, which is likely to persist until at least the end of summer and will potentially peak in December or January at strong levels.
La Nina events typically increase the likelihood of above average rainfall across much of the country during spring, and across much of eastern Australia during summer.
Typically the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral from late spring and early summer through to at least the following autumn.
Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Indian Ocean are not reinforcing the La Nina in the Pacific as strongly as they did in 2010.
The 2010-12 La Nina coincided with Australia's second wettest two years on record.
Along with seasonal climate drivers, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the IOD, Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities.
Root zone soil moisture is still above average across the Mallee region and the eastern third of the state, with pockets of Gippsland in their wettest 10 per cent of records.
Soil moisture is close to average for this time of year for most other parts of Victoria.
While soil moisture might be average, or better, and the outlook is wetter than average for the season ahead, summer rainfall is not likely to be sufficient enough to relieve long-term rainfall deficits in some areas.
North western and eastern Victoria, along with other parts of the country, have been in severe rainfall deficiency - with rainfall in the lowest 5 per cent of historical totals - from April 2018 to October 2020.
