The latest rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is favoring above average rainfall for mid-August.
The fortnight from August 8-21 is likely to bring above average rainfall to much of Australia, including the northern half of Victoria.
September is showing slightly increased chances of above average rainfall for northern Victoria.
The outlook for spring months of September to November is also showing above average rainfall is likely for the whole state.
The temperature outlook for August 8-21 favors cooler than average days in the north west and warmer than average nights in the east. There is no strong push toward higher or lower than average temperatures for much of the remainder of Victoria.
Days are very likely (more than 80 per cent chance) to be warmer than average along the state's coast this spring (September to November period), and nights are very likely to be warmer than average state-wide.
One of the main drivers of the wetter than normal spring outlook is an increased chance of La Nina forming in the Pacific Ocean in the coming months.
La Nina typically increases the chances of above average rainfall across much of Australia during spring.
Looking back, the BoM data are in for Victoria for July.
Across most parts of the state, it was much drier than average - especially away from central and eastern Gippsland.
Days were warmer than average for most of Victoria and especially the north east.
Nights were very much warmer than average in the far east and very much cooler than average in the north west.
Soil moisture typically reflects recent rainfall. So it is no surprise that root zone soil moisture is very low across parts of western Victoria - following the dry July in those same parts.
Likewise, the above average rainfall over central and eastern Gippsland bolstered root zone soil moisture across much of the south east.
While it was a drier July than usual for most of Victoria and south western New South Wales, the first seven months of the year have been wetter than average for eastern NSW and central Victoria - and close to average for much of the rest of those two states.
Water storage in the Murray-Darling Basin is 47 per cent full, which is up 8.2 per cent compared to this time last year.
So far in 2020, we have seen the largest amount of water storage refill in the Murray-Darlin Basin since 2016.
In the South East Coast drainage division - which covers southern Victoria - water storages are 36.7 per cent full. This is up 5.3 per cent compared with the same time last year.
