The limited rainfall received during the past week was focused over Victoria's east and south.
It followed significant rainfall in eastern Victoria and southern New South Wales, associated with a low-pressure system in the Tasman Sea, the previous week.
Some small areas of the east have now had more than 100 millimetres of rain so far for the month - and have already surpassed their average July rainfall totals.
Root zone soil moisture is above average for this time of year for much of central Victoria, but is below average for most of the north west and parts of the south west of the state.
Even with the recent rainfall, July is still on-track to be drier than average overall for the state.
While rainfall has been average to above average in most of central and east Gippsland, it has been very much below average in the west.
And the Bureau of Meteorology's climate model is showing that this dry pattern is likely to persist into the first week of August.
For August overall, the outlook is showing slightly increased chances of a wetter than average month in the north and far east. But there is no strong push towards wetter or drier than average for most of the State.
The three-month outlook is showing strong chances of above average rainfall during August to October for most of the country, including Victoria.
The rainfall outlook for spring (September to November) is looking wetter than average for the whole state - with the highest chances (greater than 80 per cent) around the north east regions.
Temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average for much of Victoria, except the north west, during August to October (and further into spring).
Parts of southern and eastern Victoria have high chances - greater than 80 per cent - that both maximum and minimum temperatures will be warmer than usual.
So, what is driving the wet outlook for the months ahead?
In the Pacific Ocean to our east, there are early signs of a potential La Nina developing and a majority of international climate models suggest La Nina could be established during spring.
The Bureau of Meteorology is currently on La Nina watch, and we'll be keeping a close eye on any further developments.
In the Indian Ocean to our west, some international climate models are showing a negative Indian Ocean Dipole could develop in the months ahead. But most models favour neutral conditions.
Both La Nina and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events typically increase the likelihood of above average rainfall across much of Australia, including Victoria, during winter and spring.
