Victorian barley growers have been left with little wriggle room as prices tumble on the back of China's flagged tariff hit.
Many cereal growing areas are already well into, or finished, cropping programs and the opportunity for growers to adjust areas of barley are limited, or non-existent.
James Maxwell of Australian Crop Forecasters estimated the 2020/21 Victorian barley crop was 930,000 hectares.
He said the area planted to barley was just one percent down on 2019/20.
Leigh and Julie Weir and son Spencer, Birchip, are about two thirds of the way through a barley program of more than 1000 hectares this season and also have stored grain from the past harvest.
Mr Weir said he was "spooked" by the current market moves.
Barley is part of the Weir's 2600ha cropping program that included canola, cereals and pulses.
Mr Weir said China's proposal to impose tariffs on barley from Australia had come too late in the season to adjust their cropping program.
He has barley stored onfarm from the 2019/20 harvest that he expects to have sold or committed within the next few weeks.
He said while today's prices were off the peaks, they were still historically good.
"If you're getting $250 to $260 a tonne onfarm, it's still very good money," he said.
It's still very good money. If you're getting $250 to $260 a tonne onfarm, it's still very good money
- Leigh Weir, Birchip.
"It's a moving target. The more I follow the market, the more I don't know.
"When you need money you have to meet the market. It doesn't stay down forever and they don't stay at the top forever."
He had recently "got a bit of cover" by forward selling some grain for the coming crop.
Mr Weir said if the market for barley collapsed, he hoped he had enough spread with canola, lentils and wheat to enable him to store barley from the 2020/21 harvest.
"The spread should give us the cash flow if we need it," he said.
Mr Weir is a strong advocate for storing grain in sausage bags for marketing at a later date.
He said he had stored grain for two years and the grain had "come out fine".
"I won't be pressured into marketing the barley straight away, I'll be able to sit on it if the market falls," he said.
Mr Weir said his barley program was committed.
"It's not that easy to chop and change and markets can change so quickly," he said.
He said the biggest concern was to "grow the stuff, store it and then deal with the marketing after harvest".
"If it's in the bag you haven't lost anything until you sell it," he said.
Mr Weir said the season had been excellent with 100 milimetres recorded in April.
He said the subsoil moisture was similar to 2018 when flooding occured.
