Above average rainfall is likely over most of the state during the remainder of autumn and beginning of winter.
The exception is Gippsland, which has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average May to July.
A warmer than normal Indian Ocean is providing moisture to weather systems as they sweep across the country.
This will increase the likelihood of rainfall with fronts and troughs in the coming months.
Wetter than average autumns often follow after positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, like the very strong event Australia experienced during the second half of 2019.
The expected rainfall is contributing to a temperature outlook favouring cooler than average days in northern and western Victoria, but warmer than average days in the south-east from May to July.
With more cloud and rain, nights are likely to be warmer than average across the state (with cloud acting as a blanket overnight).
Global warming is also likely a key influence on temperature patterns in the coming months (Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.4 degrees since 1910).
After a wet January, February, and start to April, most of Victoria has received more rainfall than it normally would for the first four months of the year.
Soil moisture across most of south-eastern Australia is well above average for this time of year and looks set to stay that way for the months ahead.
Soil moisture for the start of April is in the wettest 10 per cent of records for most of northern and central Victoria, but below average in East Gippsland and parts of the state's south-west.
Last weekend's weather delivered widespread rain, with locally heavy falls through parts of central and eastern Victoria.
Small hail was observed in parts of the south on Saturday and it was cold enough on the alps for a dusting of snow.
Some elevated sites recorded more than 100 millimetres over the weekend.
Lancefield and Redesdale, both with more than 100 years of rainfall records, had their wettest April day with 88mm and 84mm respectively.
Like much of eastern Australia, 2020 so far has been a stark contrast for Melbourne compared with the beginning of 2019-this time last year.
Back then, Melbourne's year-to-date rainfall was driest on record and now it's close to wettest on record.
Visit www.bom.gov.au for weather outlooks.
- Jonathan Pollock is a BoM climatologist
