Recent conditions, and the outlook for the months ahead, make some types of severe weather in Victoria more likely for the rest of spring and summer.
January to September 2019 has been the fourth driest on record for Australia and the driest since 1965.
At the same time, it's been Australia's warmest first nine months of the year since records began in 1910.
Some southern parts of central Victoria have close to average year-to-date rainfall.
The current climate driver of the overall dry and warm conditions is a very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The current positive IOD event is comparable to the strong events of 1997, 1994 and 1961.
For Victoria, this summer brings with it an increased likelihood of heatwaves, bushfires, and dust.
The recent above average temperatures combined with below average rainfall means soils are very dry over much of Australia.
Maximum temperatures for November to January 2019 are very likely to be warmer than average for most of the country.
Victoria is also likely to be drier than average in November and December, so there is an increased likelihood of heatwaves for the remainder of spring and into summer.
Increased bushfire potential is forecast for much of eastern Australia including northeast Victoria and east Gippsland.
For parts of eastern Australia, the dry landscape is elevating the risk of bushfire with dry fuels, fewer natural firebreaks and less water for firefighting.
Additionally, southern Australia is known to be one of the most bushfire prone parts of the world.
Serious and destructive bushfires can occur even in relatively benign seasons.
Dry soils mean an increased chance of dust storms associated with cold fronts.
The Lake Eyre basin and western NSW and Queensland source regions of fine silt already have very low soil moisture and the rainfall outlook suggests that could continue.
Along with the natural variation our climate drivers like the IOD and the El Nio-Southern Oscillation bring from year-to-year, climate change also affects severe weather.
There is an increasing trend in the frequency, intensity, duration and extent of heatwaves.
The fire season is now longer with more extreme fire danger days.
- Jonathan Pollock is a Bureau of Meteorology climatologist