New climate outlooks close information gap

New climate outlooks close information gap


Weather
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For the first time, outlooks for the four weeks ahead are now available,

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For the first time, outlooks for the four weeks ahead are now available, closing the information gap between the seven-day weather forecast and the existing monthly to seasonal climate outlooks.

The new outlook information for the weeks ahead will now feature the likelihood of receiving specific rainfall amounts, and guidance on how much above or below average temperatures are likely to be.

This will assist decisions such as:

  • When should I spread fertiliser or seed?
  • Will I be able to complete my spray plan before the next rain?
  • Are my animals at risk of heat stress?
  • Should I erect shade over my crops?

In addition, thanks to scientific improvements and the computational power of the BoM's new supercomputer, an extra three-month outlook period is now included.

This new outlook provides a look one month further into the future than currently available.

For example, the first summer outlook will appear in October rather than November, allowing planning decisions for summer to be made earlier.

The new outlooks will be issued more frequently, with monthly outlooks updated each Thursday, and the weekly outlooks updated on Mondays and Thursdays.

This means you'll stay informed of any changes in the outlook sooner and be confident the forecasts are based on the latest information.

Remember, don't forget to check the past accuracy for your location before making your decision.

Outlook accuracy varies across the country and is different for rainfall and temperatures at different times of the year.

The higher the past accuracy, the more confidence you can put in the outlook.

For example, if the past accuracy for your location at this time of year is 70 per cent, the outlook has been correct seven out of 10 times in the past.

The current outlook for spring indicates below average rainfall and above average maximum temperatures are likely for most of Victoria.

At the same time, there is no strong push towards warmer or cooler than average minimum temperatures for most of the state.

The past accuracy of the spring rainfall outlook is greater than 75pc in the Mallee, reducing gradually towards the state's south-east.

Past accuracy for the spring temperature outlooks is greater than 75pc for most of Victoria.

Try the new seasonal outlook tools at www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks

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