NORTHERN cropping prospects continue to fade with the end of June in sight and no meaningful rain.
It has meant farmers in the region are now weighing up their options whether to plant winter crop or to fallow in order to plant a summer crop and take advantage of high prices for sorghum and cotton crops.
The issue will be with the hundreds of thousands of hectares of dry sown crop which has either not germinated or is struggling having come up on negligible moisture.
Further adding to the negative picture is this week’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) announcement that the odds of a spring El Nino are now around double that of normal.
To the south the story is better. A series of cold fronts delivered widespread falls of between 20-40mm across much of South Australia, Victoria and southern NSW last week which will get the last of the ungerminated crop up.
Malcolm Bartholomaeus, Bartholomaeus Consulting, said it had been a patchy start.
“The system we saw last week is as close to a general break for the southern regions as we have had.”
“The crop condition through South Australia and Victoria is probably around average for this time of year, although you have to acknowledge there is not too much subsoil anywhere,” Mr Bartholomaeus said.
“We probably have the moisture to get through spring alright in these regions but conversely without soaking spring rain it will be difficult to convert potential into yield.”
Grain Producers Australia (GPA) chairman Andrew Weidemann said with this in mind many southern growers were considering hay as an option.
“There is good money and good demand in hay and should the season shape up as dry then making hay is a good risk management tool for those uncertain whether their crop will yield much in terms of grain,” Mr Weidemann said.
“Given the season is around a fortnight late, we run into the risk of flowering occurring during a period of hot weather so hay is certainly going to be in a lot of people’s thinking.”
Mr Bartholomaeus said southern and inner western NSW were also looking OK but said the west and north of the state were bone dry.
“There are obviously pockets where it is a bit better but in general farmers are preparing for a below average year in northern NSW.”
He said Western Australian crop prospects were reasonable at this stage.
Surprisingly it is driest in the normally reliable Esperance port zone in the state’s south-east.
AgScientia analyst Lloyd George agreed regarding general crop condition.
“Southern regions definitely look best at this stage,” Mr George said.
“West of the Newell Highway in NSW there are significant problems.
“Given it is so dry, even if it has come up there is no alternative feed about and kangaroos are getting in and destroying the young crops.”
Mr George said summer cropping was a priority already for many growers in areas north of Dubbo but added he did not know what would be done with the dry sown crop, whether it would be sprayed out for fallow or whether, with high grain prices, farmers would try and eke out some yield.
Mr George said the usage patterns of the livestock industry would be interesting.
“It is not sustainable long-term at the type of prices we are seeing on the Darling Downs, but equally selling off livestock and ratcheting down capacity is also a big decision.
“You cut your capacity then you can’t supply your customers and they go somewhere else and it can be hard to get them back, the same goes for staff, so the lot feeders have some tough decisions to make over coming months.”