AWB has revised its price forecast for 2009/10 season wheat downward by $5 a tonne, giving an estimated pool return (EPR) for benchmark grade APW wheat of $305-315 a tonne (FOB, exclusive of GST).
Estimated returns for AWB’s 2008/09 wheat pools have also declined slightly due to deteriorating world values, with the EPR for APW down $2/t to $325/t in the Western Pool and $330/t in the Eastern Pool.
AWB's Australian commodity management spokesman, Stuart Richardson, said wheat futures had softened on the back of updated forecasts of world supply and demand over the past fortnight.
"The northern hemisphere wheat harvest is proceeding apace and buyers are now seeing plenty of wheat available, which is adding the stocks from last year that are held by many countries," Mr Richardson said.
"The United States is forecasting an increase in carryover at the end of the season and despite some issues, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are still about to harvest large crops that need to find export demand.
"Recent rain across much of the Australian wheat belt has given the market some confidence in Australian crop estimates, notwithstanding the fact that our season still has a long way to go."
Mr Richardson said these positive elements have been balanced a little by small declines in the European Union, Canada and Argentina, "although the overall picture for buyers at present is one where choice is available".
"The Australian dollar is the other part of the equation and it continues to be relatively strong against the US dollar," Mr Richardson said.
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