Labor incumbent will benefit from population shift, says Deakin academic

Deakin University's Dr Geoffrey Robinson says incumbent Libby Coker, who took the seat from Sarah Henderson at the last election with a 1.04 per cent swing, should comfortably retain it.

Geelong mayor Stephanie Asher, who represents Bellarine ward, is the Liberal candidate, having run as an independent for the federal seat of Corio in 2013.

She joined the Liberal Party in 2018.

Dr Robinson said Corangamite was traditionally a safe Liberal seat but became marginal when Labor's Darren Cheeseman won in 2007.

"There is that big population increase, bolstering enrolment, and completing the seat's transformation from very much a mixed urban and rural seat to a very much Geelong-Surf Coast based seat," Dr Robinson said.

The new seat takes in the south-east corner of Golden Plains Shire and the Bellarine Peninsula, south-west suburbs of Geelong, Torquay but reduces the area covered by the Surf Coast Shire.

Dr Robinson said conservative pockets, which would generally vote for the coalition, would be outweighed by electors from Greater Geelong.

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He predicted infrastructure was one big issue weighing on voters' minds, given the rapid growth in the population.

"You can see governments struggling to keep up with that - every politician will be rushing out to claim credit for the duplication of the rail line at Waurn Ponds."

The South Geelong to Waurn Ponds Duplication will deliver five trains per hour during peak hours and three per hour between peak hours for Marshall and Waurn Ponds stations as well as improved reliability along the line.

He expected Corangamite to follow Corio, Ballarat, and Bendigo in becoming Labor strongholds.

"I think (Cr Asher) is up against it," Dr Robinson said.

"I think she is known, voters have heard of her as she was fairly popular in the Bellarine

"She got elected to council with a big majority, but that's a non-party contest and I think it's much more difficult for her running as a party candidate.

"I think she would be a good match for the seat, but it's not one that will fall the Liberals way."

The seat has been visited by both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and opposition leader Anthony Albanese and senior ministers.

Dr Robinson said he expected boundary changes to strengthen Labor's hold on the electorate, as it would become more of a Geelong-based seat.

Voices of Corangamite has backed the Greens candidate, with one of the group's organisers conceding it was likely the seat would either go to the incumbent or the current government.

One of the group's organisers, Mike Lawrence, said the group went with the candidate who would do the most on climate change.

"The two major parties continue to do next to nothing, so we are endorsing the Greens candidate," Mr Lawrence said.

"The Greens and Animal Justice candidates have a clear policy on climate action, and there are a whole lot of policies they have on other stuff I can barely agree with, but the main issue for me is climate change," Mr Lawrence said.

"They are the ones speaking out most clearly about the action they are going to take."

The Greens candidate in Corangamite is Alex Marshall, a disability support worker currently studying Commerce at Deakin University.

Mr Lawrence said the Greens preferences "would count for something, at least."

The group are also advocating against fossil fuel exploration and development, in the region.

"We don't want dormitory suburbs, we want people to work close to where the live, where they can, of course."

Promises from the government and Labor Party so far have largely centred around grants to sporting clubs and mobile phone upgrades.

There are nine candidates in total vying for the role, compared with 13 in 2019.

The major parties, the Greens and Animal Justice have been joined by a candidate from Pauline Hanson's One Nation.

No independents are standing for the seat this time around.

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